2017 Recruit Watch

[Matt Dillon]

Does it really matter where elite players go to school in regards to their NBA future? The reason I ask is Ben Simmons from LSU was still drafted number 1 and we all know what kind of coach and program he had to deal with.

I know there are those that will disagree with me, but I've never thought it matter much if any. I've always felt if a player is good, the NBA will know about him.

[Joneslab]

Yes it matters where they go. It matters a great deal.

Guys like Ben Simmons are outliers. They aren't good examples because they have such uncanny skill and potential.

Much more common are players who are borderline picks who are able to move up because they come to the Dukes and Kentuckys of the world.

Think about somebody like Kelly Oubre, for instance. Would he have languished on the bench at Kentucky? No, he would've been thrown right into the fire in game one. He's a guy who would have been a top five pick at Kentucky because Cal would have ridden him. When Oubre was picked 15th it was a shock because so few people really knew a lot about him. He had way more draft potential than that, and nobody is better at Cal than bringing in guys who have what the NBA looks for and then utilizing them once they're at Kentucky.

Another thing these players like about UK is that they are marketed while they're here. That's very rare because...well, it's obvious. Coaches want to keep these guys so they don't sell them to the NBA. Again, it's why Simmons and Fultz are outliers. Those guys don't need to be marketed. A vast majority of guys aren't in that boat; they need a little help.

Nobody embodies this more maybe than MKG. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a guy who, if he would have gone anywhere else, would absolutely not have been starting over a senior. He would have been held back until his shooting could catch up. His propensity for charging over guys would have earned him a quick hook.

At Kentucky, he plays. He's a leader. And he's drafted second.

So yes, it absolutely matters where they play in college. Immensely. Just not for the very top of the top. John Wall? Put him at Canisius and he's a lottery pick. Those types are not what make up the vast majority of basketball players on planet Earth, however.

[GOCAT15]

Yes it matters where they go. It matters a great deal.

Guys like Ben Simmons are outliers. They aren't good examples because they have such uncanny skill and potential.

Much more common are players who are borderline picks who are able to move up because they come to the Dukes and Kentuckys of the world.

Think about somebody like Kelly Oubre, for instance. Would he have languished on the bench at Kentucky? No, he would've been thrown right into the fire in game one. He's a guy who would have been a top five pick at Kentucky because Cal would have ridden him. When Oubre was picked 15th it was a shock because so few people really knew a lot about him. He had way more draft potential than that, and nobody is better at Cal than bringing in guys who have what the NBA looks for and then utilizing them once they're at Kentucky.

Another thing these players like about UK is that they are marketed while they're here. That's very rare because...well, it's obvious. Coaches want to keep these guys so they don't sell them to the NBA. Again, it's why Simmons and Fultz are outliers. Those guys don't need to be marketed. A vast majority of guys aren't in that boat; they need a little help.

Nobody embodies this more maybe than MKG. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a guy who, if he would have gone anywhere else, would absolutely not have been starting over a senior. He would have been held back until his shooting could catch up. His propensity for charging over guys would have earned him a quick hook.

At Kentucky, he plays. He's a leader. And he's drafted second.

So yes, it absolutely matters where they play in college. Immensely. Just not for the very top of the top. John Wall? Put him at Canisius and he's a lottery pick. Those types are not what make up the vast majority of basketball players on planet Earth, however.

I completely agree, it doesn't matter for guys like Michael Porter, etc....but it matters substantially for all the other guys. If you look back at all of Cal's first round picks you could easily say that if some of them went to other schools that they would not have been drafted near that high.

[Matt Dillon]

Justford and I were talking about elite players, not borderline players.

[Joneslab]

Justford and I were talking about elite players, not borderline players.

How many elite players enter the draft each year?

Once you get past the sixth or seventh guy, they're virtually all "borderline" guys who are going to bounce around and have to find niches. There are players who come from outside the elites who blow up (Kawhi Leonard was the 15th pick), but usually there are a handful of can't-miss players and then all the rest of them have to fight and scrap for their stake.

Wall, Davis, Towns. That's the list of players who would have been top 2 or 3 picks regardless of whether they'd come to Kentucky or not. But think about Karl Towns: could he have been the #1 overall had he not played on that particular team? Had he not been coached how to be a true big? Had he not been showcased like he was at UK?

All year they were essentially handing the #1 pick to Jahlil Okafor. At one point that season Towns wasn't even in the top five. I think Kentucky helped even a talent like KAT in a pretty radical way.

And DeMarcus Cousins? He needed Kentucky like he needed air.

There's a reason why these guys often end up at places like UK/Duke/Kansas/etc. If they didn't mean anything, the talent would be way more dispersed. But it isn't...the same reason it isn't for the Alabamas in college football.

[GOCAT15]

I would argue that there are at most one player a year who no matter where they went to school they would still be a top pick.

Since Cal has been at UK, only three times has a #1 recruit have been drafted #1 the following year, but we can argue about those "rankings" all day. But when a player like Simmons rolls through it is obvious with everyone that he is going to be a top pick....

I bet KAT would agree that Cal and UK made him the #1 pick.

[Joneslab]

This draft class probably has four guys who could have played anywhere--Fultz, Ball, Jackson, Tatum--and it wouldn't have mattered.

De'Aaron Fox benefited big-time by coming to Kentucky. Malik Monk...you think that guy didn't need a coach to put a leash on his habits? He may've gone somewhere, showed that he was an undisciplined gun, played on a team that didn't win like this past one did, and been way lower in the draft.

Another guy that jumps out to me is Dennis Smith. Smith for a time was thought to be the possible #1. He's slid way back...mostly because he played on such a terrible team and was passed up by guys who were still playing in March and who we know much more about.

[BBNalldayeveryday]

That's good. Because if you think about it for one second, UK is the only option.

In the last few years when recruits delayed their decision they didn't choose Kentucky. Such as Wiggins, Jaylen Brown, and Jarret Allen.

[Joneslab]

In the last few years when recruits have waited to choose they didn't choose Kentucky. Such as Wiggins, Jaylen Brown, and Jarret Allen.

Jamal Murray turned out our way. Terrence Jones as well. Nerlens Noel went quite awhile too.

[BBNalldayeveryday]

Jamal Murray turned out our way. Terrence Jones as well. Nerlens Noel went quite awhile too.

I thought Murray's situation was because he found out at the last minute he could. I do remember Jones taking his time now that I think of it.

[George]

I thought Murray's situation was because he found out at the last minute he could. I do remember Jones taking his time now that I think of it.

Jones didn't just take his time; he originally chose another team.

[Joneslab]

I thought Murray's situation was because he found out at the last minute he could.

He could...come to college?

He knew he was going to play in college for months. Was considering Oregon for weeks before UK even came on the scene.

One thing about UK and Bamba is that Nick Richards is in the fold. So it's not like UK is just opened up for Bamba. Have no idea what that means in terms of landing him, but Texas' Jarrett Allen has his name in the draft (but hasn't hired an agent). Allen is almost certainly gone to the league, so there will be no one in front of Bamba there.

I hope that doesn't turn out to hurt UK...but you could see how it might.

[Matt Dillon]

There's a reason why these guys often end up at places like UK/Duke/Kansas/etc. If they didn't mean anything, the talent would be way more dispersed. But it isn't...the same reason it isn't for the Alabamas in college football.

Another reason is that they want to play where they know they'll have a chance to play for a NC as well as the limelight at the upper echelon schools.

[Joneslab]

Another reason is that they want to play where they know they'll have a chance to play for a NC as well as the limelight at the upper echelon schools.

I'm not sure what the context of this quote is, so I don't want to put words in your mouth.

But are you saying that college basketball players don't care about playing for a national championship?

[GOCAT15]

I took it as Matt meant that the reason these kids go to Blue Blood programs is to have a shot at winning a NC, along with being on ESPN all the time.