Blackshear

[Joneslab]

Well this is where you and i have a difference of opinion, I don't not think our season is done before it starts if we miss on Blackshear. Funny you mention Richards because i am in the camp that he will be a Junior and it's time to give him the keys to the corvette and let him drive it, let him play through his mistakes and get confidence, i think he will be a great player this year.

I have doubts that Nick Richards will ever be close to great. Don't think he has what it takes in terms of competitive drive.

Now as a serviceable back-up or as a guy who could potentially come in and match up when there's foul trouble--yes, he can do that.

But I have as little faith in him as I have any returning player of the Cal era. Don't like him as a player. Love him as a person.

We need more or else we're going to be sitting here in December and wondering what's going on.

[Joneslab]

Well this is where you and i have a difference of opinion, I don't not think our season is done before it starts if we miss on Blackshear. Funny you mention Richards because i am in the camp that he will be a Junior and it's time to give him the keys to the corvette and let him drive it, let him play through his mistakes and get confidence, i think he will be a great player this year.

To devil's advocate.

Most people don't understand why anybody would choose another school over Duke or Kentucky or even Kansas.

One thing you notice when you read the post mortems about players after they commit is that they talk about "relationships." It's so overused it might as well be a cliché. But they seem heart-attack serious about it.

This could be a relationship with a coach. Or maybe comfort they feel on a particular campus. Or the vibe they get. Or even maybe the way the other returning players act toward them (we've heard rumors of players intentionally trying to sabotage a player coming here; see Andrew Wiggins).

People think Kentucky is this no-brainer but I think what you've seen in the last three or four years is that there are way more things at play. Looking at it as a UK fan, we can't believe anybody wouldn't want a shot to get to the NBA. But some of these families have other goals and I think that's where UK has faltered a little recently, particularly after Antigua left.

[Dwight Schrute]

To devil's advocate.

Most people don't understand why anybody would choose another school over Duke or Kentucky or even Kansas.

One thing you notice when you read the post mortems about players after they commit is that they talk about "relationships." It's so overused it might as well be a cliché. But they seem heart-attack serious about it.

This could be a relationship with a coach. Or maybe comfort they feel on a particular campus. Or the vibe they get. Or even maybe the way the other returning players act toward them (we've heard rumors of players intentionally trying to sabotage a player coming here; see Andrew Wiggins).

People think Kentucky is this no-brainer but I think what you've seen in the last three or four years is that there are way more things at play. Looking at it as a UK fan, we can't believe anybody wouldn't want a shot to get to the NBA. But some of these families have other goals and I think that's where UK has faltered a little recently, particularly after Antigua left.

I've never heard of the players trying to sabotage and make a potential player feel unwelcome.

But to your last point, I am a bit surprised that Antigua hasn't found his way back to UK's bench yet. You can almost chart our recruiting decline on Antigua's departure.

[Joneslab]

I've never heard of the players trying to sabotage and make a potential player feel unwelcome.

I was reading a conversation recently from a couple of guys who talk about recruiting a lot and one of them said it's something that happens a lot.

And it makes sense: if you've got a chance to play a ton, why would you want competition, particularly at your position? Now there are cases where you've got friends of these guys being recruited, or when it's clear that the team is woefully uneven without a certain player. That's different. But if I want PT I don't want anybody else to get in the way of that. I'm probably not going to be all sweetness and light during that guy's visit to campus.

The specific case I was talking about had to do with the Harrison twins and Wiggins.

[Dwight Schrute]

I was reading a conversation recently from a couple of guys who talk about recruiting a lot and one of them said it's something that happens a lot.

And it makes sense: if you've got a chance to play a ton, why would you want competition, particularly at your position? Now there are cases where you've got friends of these guys being recruited, or when it's clear that the team is woefully uneven without a certain player. That's different. But if I want PT I don't want anybody else to get in the way of that. I'm probably not going to be all sweetness and light during that guy's visit to campus.

The specific case I was talking about had to do with the Harrison twins and Wiggins.

That makes sense, I just never really considered it happening. You hear these guys say how much they want to win and play with good players, it's not something you think about in the other direction.

[KCKUKFan]

I think Kentucky could be a very good team with the roster as it stands, but Cal would have to adjust his style of play, certainly on the offensive end. And Im not sure if he can do that.

[lilproUK98]

I think Kentucky could be a very good team with the roster as it stands, but Cal would have to adjust his style of play, certainly on the offensive end. And Im not sure if he can do that.

All I know is, if we get Blackshear and struggle to get to 60 points in any Tournament game next year, then I'll be throwing remotes lol. Cal talks about getting up and down the court and playing free and having guys "unleashed" and "empowered" but when it gets down to the nitty gritty he pulls on the reigns as much or more than anyone, and that needs to stop. Teams playing free and loose are winning the vast majority of the time in Tournament competition now.

[Joneslab]

All I know is, if we get Blackshear and struggle to get to 60 points in any Tournament game next year, then I'll be throwing remotes lol. Cal talks about getting up and down the court and playing free and having guys "unleashed" and "empowered" but when it gets down to the nitty gritty he pulls on the reigns as much or more than anyone, and that needs to stop. Teams playing free and loose are winning the vast majority of the time in Tournament competition now.

Virginia and Texas Tech were pretty plodding. Villanova won it two years ago with a tempo ranked 150th--about smack in the middle. North Carolina won it the year before that with a solid tempo of 40th, but that same year Kentucky's tempo was 26th.

I don't think there's really too much of an issue with last year's team and the Monk team in terms of their style. Both those teams got it down to where it was anybody's game at the end. All you can ask.

I do think Cal over-used Reid Travis last year. Cal loves feeding the ball inside when the game is going away from that. He also (as we all know) does not like to gamble defensively, which is going to make you play halfcourt basketball because you're not forcing many steals. The teams the last two or three years haven't blocked a lot of shots, either, so we're giving teams a lot of cracks to score. You play with fire that way.

Cal does have his hand in the offense too much. I sometimes wish he'd let guys just go make plays. But he's ironically very traditional in how he wants to script things. People used to kill Tubby Smith for that but I actually think Cal's worse.

[lilproUK98]

Virginia and Texas Tech were pretty plodding. Villanova won it two years ago with a tempo ranked 150th--about smack in the middle. North Carolina won it the year before that with a solid tempo of 40th, but that same year Kentucky's tempo was 26th.

I don't think there's really too much of an issue with last year's team and the Monk team in terms of their style. Both those teams got it down to where it was anybody's game at the end. All you can ask.

I do think Cal over-used Reid Travis last year. Cal loves feeding the ball inside when the game is going away from that. He also (as we all know) does not like to gamble defensively, which is going to make you play halfcourt basketball because you're not forcing many steals. The teams the last two or three years haven't blocked a lot of shots, either, so we're giving teams a lot of cracks to score. You play with fire that way.

Cal does have his hand in the offense too much. I sometimes wish he'd let guys just go make plays. But he's ironically very traditional in how he wants to script things. People used to kill Tubby Smith for that but I actually think Cal's worse.

I'm talking Tournament specific really.

[Dwight Schrute]

Virginia and Texas Tech were pretty plodding. Villanova won it two years ago with a tempo ranked 150th--about smack in the middle. North Carolina won it the year before that with a solid tempo of 40th, but that same year Kentucky's tempo was 26th.

I don't think there's really too much of an issue with last year's team and the Monk team in terms of their style. Both those teams got it down to where it was anybody's game at the end. All you can ask.

I do think Cal over-used Reid Travis last year. Cal loves feeding the ball inside when the game is going away from that. He also (as we all know) does not like to gamble defensively, which is going to make you play halfcourt basketball because you're not forcing many steals. The teams the last two or three years haven't blocked a lot of shots, either, so we're giving teams a lot of cracks to score. You play with fire that way.

Cal does have his hand in the offense too much. I sometimes wish he'd let guys just go make plays. But he's ironically very traditional in how he wants to script things. People used to kill Tubby Smith for that but I actually think Cal's worse.

I think people believe VIllanova is an uptempo team because they shoot the ball so well. I think if Cal's teams were better shooting teams, it wouldn't be as big of a deal.

[Joneslab]

I think people believe VIllanova is an uptempo team because they shoot the ball so well. I think if Cal's teams were better shooting teams, it wouldn't be as big of a deal.

They don't shoot it that much better than Kentucky.

Over the last four years:

Villanova from three: 35%
Kentucky from three: 35%

Now, Villanova's second national championship team was extremely good from three at 39%. But their first title team oddly wasn't (they're the worst shooting team of any in this sample size between UK or Villanova); they just caught fire in March.

More than style, the most important thing about Villanova's recent run is this: they got a really good point guard and kept him for three years. No Jalen Brunson, no titles. To me it's that simple.

If you can get a blue chip point guard in your program, keep him for three seasons, and build around him with other NBA talent/borderline NBA talent, you will go to Final Fours in this sport--particularly with the way so many other programs are having to play young players.

[lilproUK98]

They don't shoot it that much better than Kentucky.

Over the last four years:

Villanova from three: 35%
Kentucky from three: 35%

Now, Villanova's second national championship team was extremely good from three at 39%. But their first title team oddly wasn't (they're the worst shooting team of any in this sample size between UK or Villanova); they just caught fire in March.

More than style, the most important thing about Villanova's recent run is this: they got a really good point guard and kept him for three years. No Jalen Brunson, no titles. To me it's that simple.

If you can get a blue chip point guard in your program, keep him for three seasons, and build around him with other NBA talent/borderline NBA talent, you will go to Final Fours in this sport--particularly with the way so many other programs are having to play young players.

I've got Villanova at 37.2% (1502-4040) over the last 4 seasons. UK at 35.8% (921-2576)

Most importantly, Villanova has made 581 more threes than UK over the past 4 seasons, while shooting a higher percentage. If you can shoot threes at that kind of clip it makes a huge difference offensively. The thing about threes is, shooting just 33% from three equals 50% from two. SO teams that shoot a high volume of threes and make that kind of percentage have a huge advantage statistically. UK teams run into problems when they aren't getting good, high % shots, including easy baskets in transition or off half court defense, ESPECIALLY when they don't shoot the volume or make the percentage of threes many other teams are. We also shoot a lot of long two's, which statistically is the worst shot in basketball.

I'm not saying we have to be Pitino's Bombinos, but we DO have to have outside shooters and shoot more of them, unless we have a dominant inside game, which we haven't had since 2015.

I will say, though, we got very close this past season to having the perfect mix of inside and outside attack you need to be great. In a one game scenario if one aspect isn't there, you can take an L and your season ends. Against Auburn, our outside shooting AND free throw shooting went MIA. This falls back to my point about truly playing loose. Once Cal tightens up, the playrs tighten up. Unless someone starts hitting shots, you get the Auburn game, where everyone tightens up, especially your point guard and you have to hope your star can make enough plays (and free throws) to pull it out.

[Joneslab]

^ You're right. My stats were the for the entire Cal era rather than the last four years.

Villanova's stats are inflated a little because of the tremendous shooting of that one team (the last title team). Other than that both programs are pretty even. Looking at the Cal era as a whole, Kentucky had the one putrid year (2013) and one mediocre year (2018) but they've been better than people realize.

What Kentucky generally doesn't have is a lights-out shooter that hovers up above 40%. We've only had that a few times: in 2012 obviously with two guys, with Jamal Murray, and with Brandon Knight and Tyler Ulis. Otherwise Kentucky is probably in the middle of the pack.

I don't disagree about tightening up in March. The free throw thing is really weird with Cal's teams. I will say about that Auburn game this past year that it seemed to me that it was more of an inability to guard Harper and Brown than anything offensively. It got to the point where we just could not contain them off the dribble--but really nobody in the NCAA Tournament could.

What separates teams in this game is how well your guards are playing in March. It's what killed us against UCONN (twice) and so many other tournament games. There've been times when big men have destroyed us (Indiana, Thomas Bryant) but often what you'll see in the tournament are guards going nuts. It becomes about who can stop whom on the perimeter, and that has to do with shooting but it's just as much about cutting off penetration.

[lilproUK98]

^ You're right. My stats were the for the entire Cal era rather than the last four years.

Villanova's stats are inflated a little because of the tremendous shooting of that one team (the last title team). Other than that both programs are pretty even. Looking at the Cal era as a whole, Kentucky had the one putrid year (2013) and one mediocre year (2018) but they've been better than people realize.

What Kentucky generally doesn't have is a lights-out shooter that hovers up above 40%. We've only had that a few times: in 2012 obviously with two guys, with Jamal Murray, and with Brandon Knight and Tyler Ulis. Otherwise Kentucky is probably in the middle of the pack.

I don't disagree about tightening up in March. The free throw thing is really weird with Cal's teams. I will say about that Auburn game this past year that it seemed to me that it was more of an inability to guard Harper and Brown than anything offensively. It got to the point where we just could not contain them off the dribble--but really nobody in the NCAA Tournament could.

What separates teams in this game is how well your guards are playing in March. It's what killed us against UCONN (twice) and so many other tournament games. There've been times when big men have destroyed us (Indiana, Thomas Bryant) but often what you'll see in the tournament are guards going nuts. It becomes about who can stop whom on the perimeter, and that has to do with shooting but it's just as much about cutting off penetration.

I agree about the inability to guard Auburn's guards, but we held them to 60 points in regulation. Our offense failed miserably in the second half. We only scored ONE point from free throws and threes the entire second half. That is one of the most amazing stats in Kentucky basketball history.

[lilproUK98]

Good for UK....