Class of 2018 - General Discussion

[Joneslab]

247's crystal ball isn't the end all be all but it's the only tracking system I know of.

Going back to this.

No one should pay any attention to the crystal ball until the very, very end. The crystal ball for Zion now is useful. Six months ago? It's about as useful as this forum.

Two reasons. One because those guys constantly change their picks, so that thing is always in flux. And two because programs like Kentucky get a lot of picks simply because we're Kentucky. Duke and Kansas get the same treatment. If a player puts Kentucky on his list there are invariably going to be crystal ball picks in for us. We're UK. It's Cal. Of course there will be some who throw out a guess in UK's favor.

Months out, the crystal ball is next to useless. Now if we were fans of Clemson or a mid-level Power 5 team then it would be a different story, but being a UK fan dilutes the hell out of the crystal ball. It makes it 100% not worth anyone's time to look at.

[Joneslab]

I'm so sick of this.

I get that but it doesn't really matter who's tweeting. NBA scouts go to these games and they can see with their own eyes this stuff.

Really if there's anything to be perturbed about it's Shai's play. It's that double-edged sword: for us to have any semblance of a chance this season he has to play like that, but the more he plays like that the more chances he has of going in the draft.

Cal's a really good talent scout. He knows how to find players both in and outside the elite tier.

Eric Bledsoe comes to mind. Was Eric Bledsoe a phenom? The only people who ever thought so were those who saw him up close--and, of course, Cal.

[UK8STL11]

I want to make it clear that I don't think UK basketball is falling apart or destined to become a non-factor or anything like that. I just think Cal's system doesn't work (by that I mean - Final Fours/National Titles) without the elite/top tier guys. Now, he may adjust his methods and get guys to stay, etc...and be in contention for Final Fours without #1 picks or top 3-5 recruits.

But, what can't happen is a team like this years (probably Sweet 16/ceiling) having no real superstars have a bunch of guys leave and then next year no top guys coming in.

I still trust in Cal more than any other coach not named Coach K. It just seems like the one and done, NBA push, needing top dudes every year thing is starting to slowly crack at UK.

[Joneslab]

We don't know if it can work or not without the elite players because we haven't seen him do it at UK. We have, however, seen titles won by "non-elite" guys (players outside the top five) who are older, so we know it works elsewhere. Is Roy Williams a better coach than John Calipari? Is Jay Wright? Maybe...but the differences would have to be negligible. They've all been around the block.

And again: we will have elite players. Too firm of a line is being drawn at the top five. The thought seems to be that if a player comes from outside of that or isn't a one-and-done, he has no shot of being elite.

That's a really simplified, simplistic way to look at the game. I look around at these other programs and I see guys who didn't come out of that group killing it every weekend. The thing is, though, you usually have to wait until they grow up a little. Justin Jackson at North Carolina is one of the better college players of the last few years. But he wasn't truly elite when he came in and was never really on the NBA radar. Josh Hart at Villanova. Brunson (who was a borderline top 20 player). Tra Holder...hell Tra Holder was a three-star player. He's in there for the Naismith.

Tyler Ulis wasn't elite by all accounts when he came in. I think I remember a poster named crazzed not being that pumped about that one. I like how that turned out. If this is the way it's going to be those kinds of jumps in maturity have to occur with some of these players. That's a winning formula and you see it every year in this game.

[Joneslab]

Another guy who wasn't elite: Michigan St.'s second-leading scorer Nick Ward.

Kyle Tucker just tweeted about him. Ward was being recruited by a few mid-majors. Wasn't anywhere close to elite. Now he's destroying the world on a team that might be the best in the country. Izzo's had a ton of guys like that.

This is really a game we can play all day: Trevon Bluiett. Anybody want to argue that this guy isn't elite? Holy crap.

If we can't get the top five, we have to keep the top 10/top 20 that we have. If we can do that, I really, really like this system. Because it wins.

The dice is still gonna be rolled though with some of these kids at the end of this year. That's when it's hold-your-breath time, because when you aren't landing the elite then you obviously must lean on talented experience.

[UK8STL11]

If we can't get the top five, we have to keep the top 10/top 20 that we have. If we can do that, I really, really like this system. Because it wins.

This is exactly my point. If Cal gets top 10, 15, 20 whatever guys that's great. But, some of these guys have to start staying when they shouldn't be leaving - Orton, Dakari, Briscoe, Harrisons, Teague, Lamb, etc...

I saw a note at least year's draft that Cal/UK had more guys leave school early that went undrafted or in the second round than (I believe) Duke, UNC, and UL combined since Cal has been at UK. IMO, that doesn't work if you don't replace them with the elite of the elite.

And, I'm not set on the "top five" that's just kind of where the high level elite players have been.

[Joneslab]

And, I'm not set on the "top five" that's just kind of where the high level elite players have been.

That's where they've been as freshmen.

That's rarely ever where they are as non-freshmen. This is why when you look back at the past eight or ten title teams you see a bunch of vet-heavy teams composed of guys who are in that high-four/low-five star range.

And I agree with you that you walk a razor's edge playing it that way and not grabbing guys out of the top five. You might lose guys you shouldn't lose and not be able to replace them with immediate high-level contributors. But outside of Briscoe, Cal has lost guys who are on first-round draft boards or they're swept up in a teamwide exodus like Dakari and Teague and the Harrisons.

There's going to be no teamwide exodus with this bunch unless something truly crazy happens. And these guys outside of Shai, Knox, and Diallo aren't even a blip on the radar. Way different type of thing than we've seen.

[justford]

What are Coach K, Jay Wright, and Ole Roy saying or doing that persuades their players to return for more than one year? Just curious as to others thoughts

[Joneslab]

What are Coach K, Jay Wright, and Ole Roy saying or doing that persuades their players to return for more than one year? Just curious as to others thoughts

A few things I think.

One, they're not getting nearly as many players who are on draft boards when they come into college. The stuff Cal looks for--athleticism, length, versatility--translates well to the NBA. That's why you see so many of our guys catching the eyes of NBA scouts.

Secondly, they aren't recruiting with the idea that the player will leave after one year. That's been Cal's whole pitch since he's been at UK. Clearly it's not working as well now, mostly because of the fact that kids understand they can go to Washington and Missouri and LSU and Oklahoma and be a one-and-done.

When you recruit a kid and tell him and his family that he's a one-and-done, that's the expectation. It sets the bar right away. And it makes it so that when you have a borderline player that player is far more likely to jump to the pros than stay.

Third, Cal will aggressively tout them as pros. He does this to the media often. He'll hype you if you come to Kentucky. Always has.

And finally, Cal stays out of the players' way when they're making a decision. We know Roy Williams doesn't. He has gone on record before saying he thought a few of them should come back. That's something Cal has never done, but if you start missing out on the elite guys then you better start doing it to some extent.

[teamchemistry15]

This is exactly my point. If Cal gets top 10, 15, 20 whatever guys that's great. But, some of these guys have to start staying when they shouldn't be leaving - Orton, Dakari, Briscoe, Harrisons, Teague, Lamb, etc...

I saw a note at least year's draft that Cal/UK had more guys leave school early that went undrafted or in the second round than (I believe) Duke, UNC, and UL combined since Cal has been at UK. IMO, that doesn't work if you don't replace them with the elite of the elite.

And, I'm not set on the "top five" that's just kind of where the high level elite players have been.

How many guys have we had leave early for the draft and go undrafted? I honestly don't know the answer to that question. What about second round?

I think one factor that we haven't discussed is the financial aspect of the families. There's a pretty good segment in his 30 for 30 about recruiting. He talks about most of his kids being poor and a few of the guys (I believe Davis and Wall) have mentioned how other coaches wouldn't even come to their neighborhood. It's not like all of these guys (Briscoe and Orton are the only two I can think of) leave because they don't like being in school. They leave because they have the chance to go make money play a game. More money than anyone in their family has ever made. Even the D league salary is more than most of their parents make. I would like to know the salaries of guys who left early and are playing overseas somewhere. There's Orton, Lamb, Jones, Andrew Harrison, Young, and Briscoe. I don't think I missed anyone, but I'm pretty sure all of the other guys who left early are still in the NBA, but I don't keep up with the NBA much. Good for the kids for putting their families over the poverty line. A bunch of the guys who have stayed multiple years other places either weren't used properly or weren't forced to go because of their families living in gang infested areas and had decent careers. You think Harrison Barnes, Grayson Allen, or Luke Kinnard needed to get their mom out of the ghetto? Not a lot of top five talent is returning to other schools. I know most of the kids say it, but I think quite a few mean it when they seriously consider returning.

[teamchemistry15]

Quick subject change: Anyone considering going to Central Hardin to watch Keldon Johnson play tomorrow? Oak Hill is scheduled to play at 6:00 but will most likely be a little later considering there are I think three games before them.

[teamchemistry15]

Quick subject change: Anyone considering going to Central Hardin to watch Keldon Johnson play tomorrow? Oak Hill is scheduled to play at 6:00 but will most likely be a little later considering there are I think three games before them.

Well, I could have sworn I saw in the paper there was a big classic at Central Hardin but I can't find anything about it...

[BobS]

How many titles would Jay Wright have with Cal's recruits? Roy Williams? K?

Probably not important and there is no real answer but has anyone else ever wondered?

I think Cal needs at least 1-2 superstars to win it all in his system. I'm really hoping we find out how he does with 4-5 really solid college basketball players that have been in his system for 2-3 years.

[Joneslab]

How many titles would Jay Wright have with Cal's recruits? Roy Williams? K?

It could be that those coaches wouldn't have been able to handle the egos of that talent the way Cal did. One underrated thing about Cal: he's an excellent psychologist. Some guys (see Pitino) tend to clash hard with their more talented guys.

And Roy Williams has had a crapload of talent through his career. He had super-talented teams when Cal was coaching a mid-major. One rap on Roy Williams--like Dean Smith--was that he didn't do enough with his talent. So I'm not sure Roy Williams is applicable. Williams has interestingly re-made himself into a coach who develops players in the last two or three years. That was never really his thing before this last little run. He was always like Cal: "he can recruit, but he can't coach." (Not saying I felt that way, but that was the consensus from some. I personally think Roy Williams is one of the best college basketball coaches who ever lived. Maybe top five.)

Wright is more of a technician...but man, I tell you what: those Villanova teams have had some top-shelf talent. Kyle Lowry is proof positive of that.

[BobS]

Agree. Ole Roy tends to keep players longer as well. I think Wright is a great coach.