"Who's Coming to Kentucky?" Thread (UPDATE: Kentucky Lands Jaxson Robinson!)

[40bill]

Twenty million dollars GUARANTEED...if you're in this year's top 5.

Okay guys, I'm old, overweight, got two surgically repaired eyes and grew up loving Kentucky basketball....
20 million dollars is unbelieveable...and there is absolutely no guarantee that number 5 slot will be his next year.

my advice would be take the money and live a fine life.

[justafan]

Twenty million dollars GUARANTEED...if you're in this year's top 5.

Okay guys, I'm old, overweight, got two surgically repaired eyes and grew up loving Kentucky basketball....
20 million dollars is unbelieveable...and there is absolutely no guarantee that number 5 slot will be his next year.

my advice would be take the money and live a fine life.

And, minor I know, but that was this years rookie scale. #5 pick next year is $21M, as you said, guaranteed.

No one using a top 5 pick is going to sit them on the bench. Looking at this years top 10 draft picks, all averaging over 20 minutes a game, maybe one was 17/game.

[Matt Dillon]

Steve Miller Band - "Take The Money And Run".

[40bill]

Steve Miller Band - "Take The Money And Run".

Pretty much.
looking back, we've all seen kids that if it were today's market would have lost millions by staying. Derek Anderson comes to mind. Others.
I wish it were different. NBA bears burden. So do coaches.
And schools, and fans.
Kids go to college to get "good jobs".
A million a year for NBA minimum contract (not the 2 way deals)
Is money we would be proud for our kids to drag in.

Whether they hold on to it is often the tragedy. I doubt Sheppard would have that problem.

[Joneslab]

Calipari had a few come back in the first part his first run. Jones being the big one. But then the Harrison twins when they were projected in the draft, Cauley-Stein, Poythress after he was projected high, PJ Washington.

That has almost completely dried up lately. The portal being a monstrosity has also hurt Kentucky.

[40bill]

Every time I get ready to say the age of dynasty is over thanks to NIL, transfer portal and early NBA entry a program like UConn pops up.
or maybe Nova if Wright had stayed.
This show Uconn is putting on is really something to see.

[Jody Porter]

My hot take is that the Covid year is actually having more of an impact than the transfer portal. Or looked at another way, the Covid year is a huge reason that the portal is as active as it is. Same number of roster spots as before, but several extra players per team? Not easy to deal with.

The good thing is that my theory is easily testable, once the Covid year is phased out.

[Joneslab]

Somebody put up a graphic on Twitter showing where all the Elite Eight starters began their careers and it was nuts. Almost no team had a majority of guys who were freshmen at that school.

[KentuckyWild2020]

$20M 3-yr contract for #5 pick.

No one who dreams of the NBA is going to turn that down.

I read somewhere that Reed's estimated wealth right now is already between 15-20 million with NIL and endorsements....

[justafan]

I read somewhere that Reed's estimated wealth right now is already between 15-20 million with NIL and endorsements....

The "fun" thing about NIL is that all the amounts are pure speculation. Since they're all private contracts, no one outside those contracts knows for sure.

Saban comes out and says his QB is making $1M before he even takes a snap. Truth, or coach-speak for recruiting purposes? No way to know 100%.

[GOCAT15]

Is anyone else surprised that the only person we have heard anything official from is Thiero? I thought for sure by now we'd at least hear from everyone but Reed.

[Joneslab]

Is anyone else surprised that the only person we have heard anything official from is Thiero? I thought for sure by now we'd at least hear from everyone but Reed.

It is a little surprising. I was just thinking about this this morning.

Only thing I can think: they want to give a little distance from all the Cal criticism and give the players who are leaving a day of their own to "celebrate" it. (Of course we won't.) In the hubbub (hubbub!) over how crap Cal is, their decisions will--and arguably should--be drowned out by fan complaints. Maybe Kentucky is trying to get that to die down a bit before they announce.

[40bill]

Saw an article...KSR?????.... dunno...that gave a 50% shot of ANYONE staying....Burks, etc.
Dillingham 100% gone, 80% all three centers, 70% Sheppard gone...
You get the drift.

Seems like we are not looking at returnees...all conjecture of course...but....the transfer portal is a bigger bogeyman than the G league these days.

[DA#23]

Seems like we are not looking at returnees...

Wouldn’t surprise me, and if this is the case then we’ll be lucky to see the NIT.

[GOCAT15]

My mind has gone to mush reading all of the forums and draft boards etc., but somewhere I read somebody asking how can Reed pass up a guaranteed 20 million dollar paycheck earned over three years. But per a NBC article which I would think is credible it says this;
A rookie-scale contract carries two guaranteed years with a team option for Years 3 and 4. If an extension isn't reached by the end of the fourth year, a team can extend a qualifying offer to make the player a restricted free agent.
So from what that says, you are guaranteed two years, now anyone can guess how it goes after that but let's just use two years for an example. FYI, this article was written right before the 2023 draft so these numbers may be higher this year. This was the scale in 2023 for draft picks yearly salary;
Here's a full look at the projected first-year rookie-scale figures of each first-round draft slot, per RealGM.com:

1st: $10,132,300

2nd: $9,065,600

3rd: $8,141,200

4th: $7,340,000

5th: $6,646,800

6th: $6,037,000

7th: $5,511,000

8th: $5,048,800

9th: $4,640,900

10th: $4,408,800

11th: $4,188,400

12th: $3,979,100

13th: $3,780,000

14th: $3,591,300

15th: $3,411,400

I have no idea which mock drafts are more accurate but here is a summary of Reed's projections as of today.
nbadraft.theringer.com 9th pick
bleacher report 7th pick
nbadraft.net 5th pick
nbadraftroom.com 10th pick
walterfootball.com 6th pick

So even if he were to go 5th which is the highest projection out of all of those sights, that would be approximately $6.6 mill X 2 = $13.2 million guaranteed. That number drops substantially if he slips down to the 10th spot to just under $9 million guaranteed.

Don't get me wrong, that is all serious money that anyone here will never see in their life and would be impossible for 98% of us to pass up. So even though by this little amount of research showing he most likely won't be guaranteed anywhere near $20 million, could he really pass up on $8-$13 million guaranteed, just to come back for another season to most likely a lessor team? There's no way as popular as he is that he would get near that in NIL is there? But....if next years draft is weaker and he came back and improved, could he battle for a top three draft spot? Who knows, but all I can say is at this point I honestly feel for the kid, because his future and the weight of the commonwealth is on his shoulders.

Would love to have you back kid, no matter how next season turns out because I think it would really solidify a family legacy rarely seen at a university of this level but won't have any hard feelings if you cashed out and moved on to your dream of playing in the league.