2016 Recruit Watch

[Joneslab]

You're crazy if you don't think Cal may have some second thoughts on this class.

Second thoughts? Wha? It's September. Virtually every UK target is still on the board, as they are every single season at this time.

And yet every single season JFCats is like, "IS THIS THE YEAR WHERE JOHN CALIPARI STRIKES COMPLETELY OUT???!!"

Don't live and die so much with a few recruiting losses. It happens. It's happened a lot the last two seasons probably because the field has caught up to Cal; the one-and-done thing that was once so novel isn't that novel anymore. Cal's recruiting peak--that ungodly seven-year run that began at Memphis and probably hit its apex with the Harrison twins class--looks to be on a downward slope now.

But here's the thing about that: if these classes become more diluted because more players are spread out, then Kentucky isn't going to be hurt because Calipari will still be able to get two or three elite players every year to match everybody else's haul. The fact that some of these guys are ending up at Mississippi State and Cal and NC State now is not a bad thing at all. It just means that the talent is much more spread out than it was even four or five years ago. Cal can't just scorch the earth like he used to do; too many people playing the game he perfected.

We'll get ours.

[Joneslab]

And took commitments from Wynard and Killeya-Jones?

Kentucky got a commitment from Wynyard months ago. Has nothing to do with the 2016 class.

And Killeya-Jones is a five-star player. The idea that you believe he's some random project that Cal had to take out of desperation is hilarious and telling of this impossible, half-****************ed standard you've set for these sports we watch.

[GOCAT15]

IF Cal misses on Fox, it will be tough to swallow, only because it seems he was in pretty good shape with Simmons, and now that Simmons realizes he's not a priority people have been making remarks that he has moved on....who knows.

Monk is also a toss up, I just hope all of Arkansas's issues keep him from going there.

There's still a handful of guys out there that is completely up in the air so who knows how this will play out.

[Joneslab]

Hard to imagine him not getting Fox. I just don't think you do what Fox did when Cal was in-home if you don't plan to come to the school.

Outside of him everybody else is an enigma, as they almost always are on September 24th. Appears Bridges is gone, likely swept up in Tom Izzo's major (and hellaciously surprising) class, sort of like the Cal players last year, or LSU. You see guys jumping into a big class from time to time, maybe because they have some relationships, maybe because they want to be part of something. It's happened in Kentucky's favor (Bledsoe, etc.) before.

[KevinHall]

I guess its just time to let Cal go. He's just not that good at getting September commitments anymore. Just awful. UK may not make it to 38 wins next year and have to settle for 35. I don't know if I can take that.

[JFCats22]

And yet every single season JFCats is like, "IS THIS THE YEAR WHERE JOHN CALIPARI STRIKES COMPLETELY OUT???!!"

That is complete nonsense and you know you are being stupid now. I have never said or thought ever that Cal will strike out.

Quit being dramatic. All I said is after the disaster that was spring 2015 recruiting (outside of Murray) and based on what I am being told, Cal is not nearly as confident with getting his TOP 2016 targets as he once was. Will he still have a great class and get top 25 guys? Yeah, absolutely, but he is not going to get any of his initial top 4-5 guys.

[Joneslab]

That is complete nonsense and you know you are being stupid now. I have never said or thought ever that Cal will strike out.

You say it every year after a miss or two. I mean literally every single year.

It's like when Kentucky is down at halftime and you freak out and start quoting obscure stats. Sometimes it's prudent to not make deterministic, paranoid judgments when a thing is only just started.

Yeah, absolutely, but he is not going to get any of his initial top 4-5 guys.

Not any of them? Any? When has that happened for Calipari in the last decade?

[George]

That is complete nonsense and you know you are being stupid now. I have never said or thought ever that Cal will strike out.

Quit being dramatic. All I said is after the disaster that was spring 2015 recruiting (outside of Murray) and based on what I am being told, Cal is not nearly as confident with getting his TOP 2016 targets as he once was. Will he still have a great class and get top 25 guys? Yeah, absolutely, but he is not going to get any of his initial top 4-5 guys.

Landing Skal and Briscoe was a disaster? And that second part is insane. Like betting against Steph Curry hitting a three.

[Joneslab]

Landing Skal and Briscoe was a disaster?

I believe JFCats is talking about spring, after Briscoe and Skal committed.

But that "outside of Murray" is kind of a big deal. In basketball one player can make a monumental difference. It isn't football where you've got to somehow recruit two-deep at every position. Basketball is highly contingent on just a handful of guys. Duke won the title last year based on four freshmen, one of whom didn't play until the very end.

It could be that the 2016 class is not as good as it could be. Duke might get the two guys at the very top, and if they do it's going to be hard to beat them. But it'll be interesting to see who stays. Can't see Ulis ever being a pro. Humphries and Wynyard will likely be back. Matthews and Mulder. Maybe you sign Fox and Monk and that becomes the backbone of a top five team.

Not sure this coming season is going to be one of those mass-exodus types of years.

[GOCAT15]

I believe JFCats is talking about spring, after Briscoe and Skal committed.

But that "outside of Murray" is kind of a big deal. In basketball one player can make a monumental difference. It isn't football where you've got to somehow recruit two-deep at every position. Basketball is highly contingent on just a handful of guys. Duke won the title last year based on four freshmen, one of whom didn't play until the very end.

It could be that the 2016 class is not as good as it could be. Duke might get the two guys at the very top, and if they do it's going to be hard to beat them. But it'll be interesting to see who stays. Can't see Ulis ever being a pro. Humphries and Wynyard will likely be back. Matthews and Mulder. Maybe you sign Fox and Monk and that becomes the backbone of a top five team.

Not sure this coming season is going to be one of those mass-exodus types of years.

Humphries is a guarantee to come back, since he is only 17 they said he couldn't enter the draft next year even if he wanted to, so we have him for two years at least. As much as Cal is talking up Ulis it will be interesting to see if he goes, I just don't see him ever being more than a late second rounder at best, just because of his size, but I have been very wrong before at guessing who'll get drafted. I would have to agree that Wynyard, Mulder, and Mathews should be here for more than a year. Lee will be a toss up, he will either impress people this year because of more PT, or show more of his offensive weeknesses. Either way, if we can keep that core, and add a stud PG like fox, and a couple freak athletes like Monk I would be pretty happy. I just don't see a mass exodus this year, but just from past experience I could realistically think 5 could leave, Briscoe, Skal, Murray, Lee, and Ulis and I am not even counting Alex because I would have to think he will take his chances and enter the draft no matter what after next season.

[George]

Humphries is a guarantee to come back, since he is only 17 they said he couldn't enter the draft next year even if he wanted to, so we have him for two years at least. As much as Cal is talking up Ulis it will be interesting to see if he goes, I just don't see him ever being more than a late second rounder at best, just because of his size, but I have been very wrong before at guessing who'll get drafted. I would have to agree that Wynyard, Mulder, and Mathews should be here for more than a year. Lee will be a toss up, he will either impress people this year because of more PT, or show more of his offensive weeknesses. Either way, if we can keep that core, and add a stud PG like fox, and a couple freak athletes like Monk I would be pretty happy. I just don't see a mass exodus this year, but just from past experience I could realistically think 5 could leave, Briscoe, Skal, Murray, Lee, and Ulis and I am not even counting Alex because I would have to think he will take his chances and enter the draft no matter what after next season.

Pure speculation here, but I'd expect more of the latter. Could be a case where we see the opposite of what has helped so many of our guys vault up the draft boards: more time = more opportunities to expose flaws.

[Joneslab]

Lee's a really weird player. I actually thought he should've played a little more last year.

It was hard to take WCS out of the game, but I tend to think Lee is a little more polished than WCS was. Maybe not in terms of back-to-the-basket offense, but he's a sneaky good passer. And I saw him in the practice in the YUM! bucket just drilling 17-footers.

I don't expect a colossal season or anything, but it used to be said that raw big men made the jump between their sophomore and junior seasons. There were times last year when he played extended minutes and really helped us. Other times (West Virginia) when he looked like a fish out of water.

It'll be interesting to see, but I've always liked him as a player. He brings a lot more than guys who are that raw usually do.

[JFCats22]

Not any of them? Any? When has that happened for Calipari in the last decade?

I was told Cal's top targets for 2016 were -

Josh Jackson - it became very clear very early that UK was not an option for him. Not on Cal at all
Giles - likely headed to Duke
Tatum - is headed to Duke
Bridges - looks to be MSU bound
Monk - we shall see, tossup between UK/Ark
Thon Maker - this is a circus so again, not on Cal

So, yeah there is a chance that Cal strikes out with all his initial top choices. Maybe he can flip Giles and land Monk, and then all of this would be nonsense. I think now you can throw Fox and Monk as his top priorities along with Adebayo and Gabriel. But, talking to people in Lexington, Cal has most definitely had to adjust his 2016 recruiting.

[JFCats22]

Not sure this coming season is going to be one of those mass-exodus types of years.

For UK or general across basketball?

[Joneslab]

If he's had to adjust his 2016 recruiting it's because of what happened in 2015.

Nothing much has happened with '16. If you get viciously deflated with every miss and every rumor, then a lot has happened. But in reality things look exactly like they did months ago. Even if/when Bridges signs, there's still a ton out there with this group.

(As for Monk, hard for me to believe anyone signs up to play for Arkansas at this point.)