Tar Heel Talk

[BJD]

We are better than UNC. No way we lose to them tomorrow. Was hoping for a rematch against Kansas but now we get Oregon. We will guard them where Kansas didn't.

[George]

TBS needs to silence the UNC homer that is Kenny Smith for tomorrow's game.

[teamchemistry15]

We should just let Jackson have his and not let Berry go off. We can afford one of them getting 25 but not both.

[Westtncat]

Not gonna lie, this game scares me.

[Joneslab]

Not gonna lie, this game scares me.

Me too...but then I think about how Arkansas had them on the ropes, and how Duke beat them twice, and how Virginia held them to 43 points.

I think if we play defense the way we've been playing this we can win it. Only thing is you hope Fox and Monk didn't use up all their mojo Friday night. Kansas went from hitting absolutely everything to missing tons of wide open shots last night. Monk has had a habit all year of playing great and then coming back an clanking shots. That can't happen today obviously.

[Westtncat]

You cant really pay attention to me. Every game from here on out scares me.

[George]

Me too...but then I think about how Arkansas had them on the ropes, and how Duke beat them twice, and how Virginia held them to 43 points.

I think if we play defense the way we've been playing this we can win it. Only thing is you hope Fox and Monk didn't use up all their mojo Friday night. Kansas went from hitting absolutely everything to missing tons of wide open shots last night. Monk has had a habit all year of playing great and then coming back an clanking shots. That can't happen today obviously.

Seems like they lost to someone else, too. Who might that've been?

[Joneslab]

Seems like they lost to someone else, too. Who might that've been?

Yeah but I don't think the way we beat them will work today.

We're going to have to stifle them defensively. Friday night was our most impressive game of the year because we just frustrated UCLA, and UCLA is obviously a much better team offensively than North Carolina.

[DA#23]

Berry vs Fox will determine this one.

[TrueblueCATfan]

I am nervous......I want to go to the FF so bad

[CATHYnKY]

Berry vs Fox will determine this one.

I want it to be a team effort. More activity by Bam is needed for sure. Am sure the coaching staff is warning him about getting into foul trouble. Hump needs to be ready for quality minutes. Would rather not have to live and die by the 3. Wasn't nervous until Kansas lost last night. Whole new tourney starting. Wonder what the "experts" are saying today as they are scratching their heads. NC does not deserve to be this far. Don't care what technicalities are keeping them from NCAA punishment. GO CATS!!!! Strippers and Trippers are home. Let's send this team packing

[BJD]

From The Professor;

I almost never add commentary to my predictions, preferring to simply report the model results, and let them speak for themselves. I deviate from this practice for this game because this game in my opinion, is really too close to call. Vegas has opened UNC -3, and the line has slipped to UNC -2 1/2 this morning. Pomeroy's theoretical margin is UK -1 (82-81).

My ANE model gives the edge to UNC by a very narrow margin, less than 1/2 point. I have another model that I have been playing with based on power (adj off eff / adj def eff), and while I have not adopted this model for use, I am seriously considering a shift to this model for next season. This model give the edge to UK -1 3/4.

Based on this second, alternative model, and my heart over mind, I am predicting:

UK 76
UNC 75



Over the last 13 games, my ANE model has been very reliable, with an average variation between theoretical and actual margin of +0.154 with a Standard Deviation of 7.200 points. Pomeroy has been nearly are close, with an average variation between theoretical and actual margin of -1.077 with a Standard Deviation of 7.065 points. For this game, Pomeroy say UK by 1 and my ANE says UNC by less than 1/2 point. Regardless of how you look at this one, it is likely to be a very close game.

I also have data that shows UK surging, but I also see UNC playing at elevated levels in recent games, so I am not comfortable projecting the surging trend onto UK alone.

Thoughts and perspectives are always welcome.

[Catsrock]

Well we've watched our guys for 4 1/2 months now. They've given us plenty of reason to believe they could beat anyone. They've given us reason to doubt they put up a number of good showings in a row. Have to feel we've hit our stride with the winning streak and a relatively easy win over UCLA. Then again NKU was just a week ago.

Sure we can say we've got to have this or that from certain players but the main thing is if shots are falling like Friday we win. If not then we gotta fight like dogs. I feel pretty good about our chances because I have no doubts we'll be ready to fight.

Come on Cats--don't let this ride end! Don't want to have to wait till November for more of this excitement.

[Lighthouse]

Will miss the game because of obligations at Church, but will be getting texts on score updates.

COME ON CATS, A FF SPOT IS YOURS FOR THE TAKING. FIGHT HARD AND NEVER LOOK BACK.

[85 Fly]

Not gonna lie, this game scares me.

Me too West but that's what I thought about UCLA Lets Go Cats!!!!