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Chiefs vs Bills - three really odd plays

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  • Jaxcat
    Senior Member
    • Jul 2025
    • 455

    #1

    Chiefs vs Bills - three really odd plays

    First, the Chiefs with the ball around midfield I think in the 3rd quarter, 2nd and 6 or so. Mahomes goes back to pass, big rush on him, he throws right before he's hit and the ball flutters into an empty area of the field. The refs discuss for a minute or so and then throw a flag for intentional grounding. They talk to Andy Reid and, it appears, they consult the replay which CLEARLY show the pass was tipped by a defensive player. It was very obvious that the ball left Mahomes' hand and got tipped by a DL and wobbled from thereafter until it hit the ground.
    After a bit more discussion, they don't pick up the flag! I have never officiated a football game but, if the pass is tipped, how in the hell can it be grounding?

    Second, and this one is at least arguable. Bills have a 28-21 lead late in the 4th. All they're trying to do is run the clock out. The Chiefs burn all their timeouts as the Bills pick up at least one, maybe two first downs. So, it comes down to 4th and 8 or so with about 40 seconds remaining. The Bills are on the KC 35-yard line or close to there. I'm thinking the clear choice here is to punt the ball. Worse case, it comes out to the 20 and you've picked up 15 yards. At best case, the Chiefs are pinned back inside the 10 and have 90 or more yards to go to tie the game with no timeouts. I didn't even think it was that difficult a decision. The Buffalo coach sends the FG kicker out. The ball was spotted about the 42 or 43 yard line, hardly a chip shot FG. I understand that a successful kick puts the game completely on ice. However, a flubbed snap, a blocked kick or a miss (which is what happened) gives the Chiefs a much better chance of scoring than punting. With the miss, the ball goes to the Chiefs at the 42 or 43 yard line. While they didn't score, they did complete a couple of passes to the Bills 35 and threw two passes into the end zone, neither of which was completed although the first was darn near as the WR looked to have gotten one hand on the pass but couldn't pull it in. Having at least 22 more yards as a cushion (42 - worst case 20) would have made the last couple of plays impossible to attempt.

    Am I completely missing the logic behind going for a field goal in that situation? If the LOS was the 25 and the FG attempt was 42 yards, then, yeah, I'd probably kick the FG as pro kickers are just about automatic inside 45 yards. But, this was a 52- or 53-yard field goal that you didn't need to win or tie the game - so, maybe a 50/50 proposition. I thought it was a very questionable decision that gave the Chiefs a better chance, however slim, by giving them the ball near midfield.

    Third, the Chiefs trailed 28-13 in the 4th. They scored a TD with a few minutes (maybe 4 or 5) to go to make the score 28-19. Reid goes for TWO at this point and I'm really scratching my head. They do get the 2-point conversion. However, there is almost no benefit to going for 2 at that point and, if you don't make it, you're toast as now you have to score twice. Andy Reid is a HOF coach but that's the wrong decision, isn't it? You kick the PAT to make it an 8-point game. Then, you have to score a TD and 2 pt conversion to tie. If you miss the 2 pt conversion after the first TD, you're down 9 and have to score twice. Is there any other way to look at that situation? You don't really increase your chance of winning/tying the game if you go for 2 after the first TD as you have to score 15 points to tie so you have to make a 2-pt conversion sometime. BUT, if you don't make the first one, you've made your odds of winning MUCH longer as now you have to score twice more.

    Again, I am missing the logic of going for 2 in that situation.
  • EKYCat
    Senior Member
    • Mar 2022
    • 897

    #2
    Kickers are making close to 70% of their FG attempts over 50 yards in the NFL this season. So, I totally understand the logic in kicking it. A make ices the game. A miss, KC still has to go 60 yards in less than a minute to win.

    Comment

    • Jaxcat
      Senior Member
      • Jul 2025
      • 455

      #3
      That does change the decision making. I don't recall whether the Bills' kicker was super accurate from that distance, but if he's >65%, I concede the decision isn't as obvious as I thought.

      The tipped ball/intentional grounding and 2-point conversion situations are still baffling to me.

      Comment

      • Sjslhill
        Senior Member
        • Jul 2025
        • 249

        #4
        I believe you’re 100% correct in your analysis. ? Punt it. I wonder what Stoops would have done.

        Comment

        • CrimsonCats
          Member
          • Jul 2025
          • 55

          #5
          The 2-point conversion is an analytics thing that’s really only taken off with coaches in the past couple of years. It’s fairly easy to explain intuitively though.

          Basically, if you’re down 15 and know you’re going to need to go for 2 at some point to tie the game, you’re better off doing it as early as possible. If you get it after your first score, then obviously there’s no downside to scoring more points. You can now definitely plan on needing one more touchdown and PAT to tie and now also have the flexibility to go for 2 again to try and win in regulation if you’re feeling really aggressive.

          If you don’t get it, you could very well be screwed, but not any more so than you would be if you fail after your second score and still wind up down by 2 likely much later in the game. It may not exactly be a good chance, but if you know earlier that you’ll need a 3rd score, you can theoretically start adapting your strategy to be more aggressive in creating extra
          possessions, such as attempting onside kicks instead of sending it deep and calling timeouts, for example.

          Comment

          • Jaxcat
            Senior Member
            • Jul 2025
            • 455

            #6
            Originally posted by Sjslhill
            I believe you’re 100% correct in your analysis. ? Punt it. I wonder what Stoops would have done.
            Called timeout. Run on the field a little late out of the timeout. Put guys in motion. Change the play with 5 seconds on the game clock. Get called for delay of game and/or false start. Punt. In the postgame interview say, 'we need to clean up...' , 'go back to work', etc. about 15 times.

            What's your thinking on the tipped pass and 2-point conversion? I've never seen IG called on the QB when his pass was tipped by a defensive player. And, the 2-point decision makes zero sense to me.

            Comment

            • Jaxcat
              Senior Member
              • Jul 2025
              • 455

              #7
              Originally posted by CrimsonCats
              The 2-point conversion is an analytics thing that’s really only taken off with coaches in the past couple of years. It’s fairly easy to explain intuitively though.

              Basically, if you’re down 15 and know you’re going to need to go for 2 at some point to tie the game, you’re better off doing it as early as possible. If you get it after your first score, then obviously there’s no downside to scoring more points. You can now definitely plan on needing one more touchdown and PAT to tie and now also have the flexibility to go for 2 again to try and win in regulation if you’re feeling really aggressive.

              If you don’t get it, you could very well be screwed, but not any more so than you would be if you fail after your second score and still wind up down by 2 likely much later in the game. It may not exactly be a good chance, but if you know earlier that you’ll need a 3rd score, you can theoretically start adapting your strategy to be more aggressive in creating extra
              possessions, such as attempting onside kicks instead of sending it deep and calling timeouts, for example.
              That's interesting, but there was only maybe 5 minutes left. I can see that line of thinking if it's early in the 4th, but 5 minutes to go? Down 15, you know you have to score 2 TDs and make one 2-point conversion to tie, which at that point in the game is the only viable option in my thinking. There is no guarantee you will score a second TD, of course, but going for 2 and not converting is basically cutting your own throat because now you have to score TWO more times still with not much time left on the clock. Certainly, if you kick the first PAT and score again, you have to go for 2 and may not make it. But, you at least preserve the chance of tying the game by kicking the PAT after the first TD. Maybe he was thinking that if they convert the first one, they have to option of going for the win if they score again. But, that's really going out on a limb, imo. Down 15, I think you'd have to play for a tie in regulation and then try to win in OT. Risk/reward in the early 2-point conversion decision is way more risk than reward in my eyes - you kick the automatic PAT after the 1st TD, you're in the same place as before you scored, i.e., need 2 TDs and one 2-point conversion total. But, fail and you're in a much worse situation because you have to score twice, which is where you were BEFORE you scored the 1st TD. So, kick the PAT and need 8 points to tie or fail on a 2-point conversion and you need 10 points to win. I know where I'd want to be after the first TD. I hate to quote Stoops but sometimes the analytics book is 'stupid' (or I'm not smart enough to see the wisdom, like many of our political leaders claim whenever anyone ever disagrees with them).

              It's always enjoyable when a complete novice knucklehead like me second guesses a sure HOF coach who's won multiple SBs, isn't it?

              Comment

              • Sjslhill
                Senior Member
                • Jul 2025
                • 249

                #8
                Originally posted by Jaxcat

                Called timeout. Run on the field a little late out of the timeout. Put guys in motion. Change the play with 5 seconds on the game clock. Get called for delay of game and/or false start. Punt. In the postgame interview say, 'we need to clean up...' , 'go back to work', etc. about 15 times.

                What's your thinking on the tipped pass and 2-point conversion? I've never seen IG called on the QB when his pass was tipped by a defensive player. And, the 2-point decision makes zero sense to me.
                Never go for 2 unless you have to. Always have 2 or 3 good plays to get 2 when you need it. IG cannot be called on the tipped ball. I see more and more calls that are completely wrong. First thing that comes to mind is who did they bet on.

                Comment

                • Jaxcat
                  Senior Member
                  • Jul 2025
                  • 455

                  #9
                  And I'm almost positive they went to replay to look at it, but I may be mistaken. Certainly the broadcast showed the play several times from different angles and there is no doubt the pass was tipped at the LOS and they still called IG.

                  Agree with your thoughts on 2-points. It's an 'only if I have to' in my book although the analytics may say something different.

                  Comment

                  • EKYCat
                    Senior Member
                    • Mar 2022
                    • 897

                    #10
                    The thing with the IG call is, even though the ball was tipped, it is not a reviewable play. It probably will be from now on.

                    Comment

                    • Sjslhill
                      Senior Member
                      • Jul 2025
                      • 249

                      #11
                      Originally posted by EKYCat
                      The thing with the IG call is, even though the ball was tipped, it is not a reviewable play. It probably will be from now on.
                      I am sick of this play is not reviewable. The refs look stupid when this happens. I saw one in a game on Saturday but can’t remember exactly what game it was in. The call was 100% incorrect and it was a big play. Maybe Georgia vs. Florida?

                      Comment

                      • Catsrock
                        Senior Member
                        • Oct 2014
                        • 5585

                        #12
                        Maxwell Hairston from UK intercepted a Mahomes pass to help decide this game

                        Comment

                        • Sjslhill
                          Senior Member
                          • Jul 2025
                          • 249

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Catsrock
                          Maxwell Hairston from UK intercepted a Mahomes pass to help decide this game
                          I saw that!

                          Comment

                          • EKYCat
                            Senior Member
                            • Mar 2022
                            • 897

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Sjslhill

                            I am sick of this play is not reviewable. The refs look stupid when this happens. I saw one in a game on Saturday but can’t remember exactly what game it was in. The call was 100% incorrect and it was a big play. Maybe Georgia vs. Florida?
                            Oh I get it. Just stating the fact as to why it wasn't overturned. Should have been reviewable and fixed. Although, it is kind of nice to see the Chiefs get some of what the rest of the league gets when playing the Chiefs ?

                            Comment

                            • Jaxcat
                              Senior Member
                              • Jul 2025
                              • 455

                              #15
                              Originally posted by EKYCat
                              The thing with the IG call is, even though the ball was tipped, it is not a reviewable play. It probably will be from now on.
                              I wondered about that at the time. What, exactly, is the purpose having the tech to quickly review a play and not use it? I know, the game drags on forever as it is, but, literally, within 15 seconds they could've looked at the replay and easily seen the ball was tipped, incomplete pass. Didn't need to spend 2+ minutes discussing it. Just get the call corrected in a minimum amount of time. Big difference between 3rd and 6 and 3rd and 16.

                              But, yes, The KC Swifties get more than their fair share of 50/50 calls so it's past time they get the short end of the stick for once.

                              Comment

                               

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                              Chiefs vs Bills - three really odd plays

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