Chiefs vs Bills - three really odd plays

[CrimsonCats]

That's interesting, but there was only maybe 5 minutes left. I can see that line of thinking if it's early in the 4th, but 5 minutes to go? Down 15, you know you have to score 2 TDs and make one 2-point conversion to tie, which at that point in the game is the only viable option in my thinking. There is no guarantee you will score a second TD, of course, but going for 2 and not converting is basically cutting your own throat because now you have to score TWO more times still with not much time left on the clock. Certainly, if you kick the first PAT and score again, you have to go for 2 and may not make it. But, you at least preserve the chance of tying the game by kicking the PAT after the first TD. Maybe he was thinking that if they convert the first one, they have to option of going for the win if they score again. But, that's really going out on a limb, imo. Down 15, I think you'd have to play for a tie in regulation and then try to win in OT. Risk/reward in the early 2-point conversion decision is way more risk than reward in my eyes - you kick the automatic PAT after the 1st TD, you're in the same place as before you scored, i.e., need 2 TDs and one 2-point conversion total. But, fail and you're in a much worse situation because you have to score twice, which is where you were BEFORE you scored the 1st TD. So, kick the PAT and need 8 points to tie or fail on a 2-point conversion and you need 10 points to win. I know where I'd want to be after the first TD. I hate to quote Stoops but sometimes the analytics book is 'stupid' (or I'm not smart enough to see the wisdom, like many of our political leaders claim whenever anyone ever disagrees with them).

It's always enjoyable when a complete novice knucklehead like me second guesses a sure HOF coach who's won multiple SBs, isn't it?

Well, the crux of the argument as such, is that cutting the lead to 8 for the sake of keeping it a one score game for as long as possible is an aesthetic choice that doesn’t actually improve your chances at winning. You need the 2 point conversion as part of your formula for tying the game no matter what, you just get to choose whether you know the result of that attempt earlier or later. Since saving it for last doesn’t improve your chances of converting, it’s actually slightly more valuable to your chances of winning to have that information earlier because of the extra adaptability it gives you.

All that being said, I don’t want to oversell it. We’re talking a difference of a couple of percentage points in how that changes the odds. Something that coaches may consider worthwhile to consider in a cutthroat world where every win matters, but not something you’re going to see actually change the outcome of the game very often.

[Trueblujr]

I believe you’re 100% correct in your analysis. ? Punt it. I wonder what Stoops would have done.

Probably go for it and run it straight up the middle for a yard.