NEXT 4 Years SEC Schedule

[Catsrock]

Totally agree, LG. If we think there has been a lack of enthusiasm for many of our recent minor bowl games, wait until we're invited to a no-name bowl with a 5-7 record. They will have to pay fans to attend that game. There has to be a culling of the number of bowl games. There's what, 40+? 80 teams, out of 134, 'deserve' to go to a bowl? I don't think so. I'd bet a very small percentage of bowl games, and their participant schools, make any money. Maybe with ESPN money they do OK but there are many bowl games where the stands are not even half full.

And a whole crapload of bowl games that send me looking for a basketball game

[Uncle Dave]

In my humble opinion, with this new SEC set up we're a .500 MAYBE unless some incredible HC hiring is made. Pretty clear Stoops isn't the man. We'll still make millions because of our affiliation with the conference. Outside of the SEC, what are we? An 8-4, 7-5 program?

[Trueblujr]

Losing UofL is completely reasonable. Right now UK is the underdog in every game in this schedule. Gonna have to find some way to compete. Ask Indianas coach what they did. Beamer. Lea. There's guys out there that have found a way.

They require us to play at least one OOC game against another P4 school, so who do we replace Louisville with that fits that category but we can beat on a regular basis. Or do we just go seeking the projected weakest P4 schools over the next 4 years to schedule in their place?

[Pobilly]

They require us to play at least one OOC game against another P4 school, so who do we replace Louisville with that fits that category but we can beat on a regular basis. Or do we just go seeking the projected weakest P4 schools over the next 4 years to schedule in their place?

Best guesses, DUKE, UNC, Virginia, Stanford, UCLA, Oregon State, Wake, Va Tech, WVU and so forth. Depending on the years all of these teams are in the same boat as UK. You could do home and home with each rotating and so forth. I like the closer games, DUKE< UNC< VIRGINIA< VA TECH< WAKE and such.

[blueheretic]

That is 4 straight years of, at most, 4 win seasons.

GOOD LORD!

[Los Gatos]

Best guesses, DUKE, UNC, Virginia, Stanford, UCLA, Oregon State, Wake, Va Tech, WVU and so forth. Depending on the years all of these teams are in the same boat as UK. You could do home and home with each rotating and so forth. I like the closer games, DUKE< UNC< VIRGINIA< VA TECH< WAKE and such.

Despite living about 30 miles from Stanford, I don't see any reason to do a home and home with a west coast school.

Can't do Oregon St, as they are still in the revised PAC-12, not P4. You could add Cal. I don't keep up with ACC schools. How about Pitt, Syracuse, NC State?

[blueheretic]

The bottom 10 over ~20 years (ranked by long-run win%)


These are straight from On3’s “this century” bottom-10 list (records through 2021) and they align with a 2005–2024 view; none of these programs did enough from 2022–2024 to climb out of the bottom tier over a 20-year window.

1. Kansas — .306 (80–181) On3
2. Duke — .327 (87–179). On3
3. Vanderbilt — .338 (89–174). On3
4. Indiana — .369 (96–164). On3
5. Illinois — .374 (98–164). On3
6. Colorado — .412 (110–157). On3
7. Syracuse — .414 (110–156). On3
8. Arizona — .431 (113–149).* On3
9. Rutgers — .433 (116–152). Also just .308 since joining the Big Ten (2014–21). On3+1
10. Iowa State — .447 (122–151). On3

*Arizona surged in 2023, but over a 20-year window they still grade out bottom-tier. The next 10 “worst” (alphabetical)


These are the programs that most consistently show up in the bottom quintile when you extend the window to 20 years, based on (a) On3’s past-decade bottom-10 and (b) “fewest wins 2015–2024.” I’m listing them alphabetically rather than pretending to a spurious precision on ordering:

• Arkansas — bottom-10 Power-5 win% over 2012–21 (.402, 49–73). On3
• California — bottom-10 over 2012–21 (.417, 48–67). On3
• Maryland — bottom-10 over 2012–21 (.410, 48–69). On3
• Oregon State — bottom-10 over 2012–21 (.373, 44–74). On3
• Purdue — bottom-10 over 2012–21 (.364, 43–75). On3
• Virginia — among the fewest P4 wins across 2015–2024 (51). College Football Every Day
• Nebraska — few wins across 2015–2024 (50); their 2005–2010 success lifts the full 20-yr average, but a decade-long slump keeps them in the broader bottom-quintile conversation. College Football Every Day
• Northwestern — historically sub-.500 all-time and a rough early-2020s; a reasonable bottom-20 candidate over a 20-yr span. 18 Stripes
• Boston College — similar profile (long run of 5–7/6–6 seasons); shows up in “worst program” discussions built on historical baselines. 18 Stripes
• Georgia Tech — multiple down cycles post-2014; borderline inclusion over 20 years given mediocrity in the late 2010s. 18 Stripes

Why the split format?
The top 10 above are hard to argue with (they’re the consensus bottom across the whole century). For spots 11–20, several programs cluster tightly; On3’s past-decade list and the 2015–2024 win totals are the best public shortcuts for identifying the most likely candidates. On3+1

From ChatGPT.

[Pobilly]

Despite living about 30 miles from Stanford, I don't see any reason to do a home and home with a west coast school.

Can't do Oregon St, as they are still in the revised PAC-12, not P4. You could add Cal. I don't keep up with ACC schools. How about Pitt, Syracuse, NC State?

No doubt, there are many more, few big 10 as well. Thing is we need to be playing others our schedule is so stagnate that it becomes boring to fans. You want to get some added talk in the summer then schedule Duke or UNC at Commonwealth and such. Kansas, OK State and such.

9 SEC games, Eastern KY, UNC, Army that would be a fun schedule.

[Trueblujr]

Best guesses, DUKE, UNC, Virginia, Stanford, UCLA, Oregon State, Wake, Va Tech, WVU and so forth. Depending on the years all of these teams are in the same boat as UK. You could do home and home with each rotating and so forth. I like the closer games, DUKE< UNC< VIRGINIA< VA TECH< WAKE and such.

Louisville isn't head and shoulders above any of those programs regularly. Louisville is a decent ACC team, that's about it.

[Pobilly]

Louisville isn't head and shoulders above any of those programs regularly. Louisville is a decent ACC team, that's about it.

I agree. I just think it would give fans some flavor instead of seeing 2 MAC teams the Ville each year with rotating SEC schedule. When we have 4 SEC home have someone (UofL along with a laundry list of other teams rotate) and when we have 5 SEC home games go to one of those teams home.

[Los Gatos]

I'd definitely like to see fewer MAC teams. Would prefer a G5 team from a different conference. I do see that we have a couple of non MAC G5 on the schedule in the next couple of years.

Another factor, I suspect it will be more difficult to schedule all the 5 games in Lexington. The 2029 game against Toledo is away for example.

Definitely drop playing UL ever year and schedule a different P4 school. One of those opening week neutral site games would be interesting.

[Jaxcat]

IU, Purdue, Northwestern, Va Tech, UC, IL - plenty of possibilities that are within driving distance

[Trueblujr]

I'd definitely like to see fewer MAC teams. Would prefer a G5 team from a different conference. I do see that we have a couple of non MAC G5 on the schedule in the next couple of years.

Another factor, I suspect it will be more difficult to schedule all the 5 games in Lexington. The 2029 game against Toledo is away for example.

Definitely drop playing UL ever year and schedule a different P4 school. One of those opening week neutral site games would be interesting.

That 2029 game in Toledo will be bought out, almost a certainty. I think that was probably always intended to be bought out at some point anyway. Since when has a MAC team hosted a P4 team? I know Miami OH hosts Cincinnati every so often, but that's because it's one of the oldest rivalries in College football history, but even it may be coming to an end now too. They aren't playing this year. Play next year on a neutral field and after that no further scheduled meetings.