We can be 99.99% sure that Murray and Ulis are both gone. How will our shooting be next year? I know our class coming in is insanely talented, but I don't know much about their range and consistency. I am imagining a scenario where Briscoe returns and we have him, Fox, and Monk starting with Bam and one of Humphries, Skal, Sacha, Gabriel, Willis, or Lee. Willis is the only one I know of that can shoot consistently. How are the other guys?
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Monk likes to shoot the deep ball, and most of the time he hits them, he's a gunner though. Of course that was in high school, so unless he can make them as consistently as Murray did I don't see Cal letting him chuck up three's all day. Fox is a decent shooter as well as Sacha, and Gabriel is a scorer as well. Even with this group of studs coming in I still see Willis as getting a good amount of PT next year, injuries really killed his progress at the end of the year. Briscoe has to improve his shot, that's all there is to it. Jodie Meeks isn't walking through the door but these incoming kids seem to be scorers more than shooters, with Monk as the possible exception.Comment
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Would love to see Dominique be a guy who can improve enough to be the guy you bring in to knock down a shot.
Otherwise I think the team will be in the 2009-2010 mold: a slashing, running, athletic team. Don't think we'll have a Murray or Booker in the bunch.
Hopefully that won't matter and we can at least be formidable enough from outside that we can offset it by doing some other things really well.Comment
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Monk is a great shooter. Willis is a great shooter. Fox is a good shooter, can be streaky...he made 10 threes in a game this year....
I think you need three guys in the rotation that can knock down shots from the outside, we have that. Plus Hawkins, and anyone else that works to improve and somewhat surprises next year.
With as good as we'll be physically, athletically, defensively, and in transition....if we can get 35% from three we'll be just fine. I think this team can do even better than that...which would get scary....Comment
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Use Briscoe as an example. How more effective would he have been all season, had he been shooting his free throws at 79% clip o higher, like in high school, than what he did during his freshman college year?
Any player that can drive to the basket has a chance at higher percentage shot and also of drawing fouls and getting to the charity stripe. Even great shooters have tough nights or ven go through cold stretches. As great as some of these kids are, inevitable, they seem to get stage fright in the big dance and their outside shooting cools down a bit. I would take a good shooter who can get to stripe and hit free throws, over a great shoooter who settles for the outside shot all the time, because the cold streaks do happen.Comment
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I thought Jamal Murray was much better if he just took the outside shot. Buddy Hield is the same sort of player. With those guys you're better off if they just fire it, because their percentage from outside and in the paint is almost identical.
Most of the time you want these athletic guys that Cal usually recruits to drive. The problem comes when you have nobody who can keep the defense honest, and teams start packing it way in on you. It's really hard to run your offense that way. This was the John Wall team's problem by the end.
But you at least need that three-point shot in your arsenal. It's become like the 21st century dunk: it can change the momentum of a game. When you're only hitting 2 or 3 threes a game it's really hard to get any separation.
Duke's last title team was a good illustration of this. They could kill you with Okafor inside and Winslow on the drive. But what you'd notice is that they would play even with teams even when Okafor would have 25 points. It was only when Jones got going with the three that they could get real separation.
You have to have outside shooters in this game. Have to.Comment
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Good point.
A lot of these coaches teach flopping. If all you can do is drive then you're inevitably going to end up in foul trouble because guys will just sit down there and wait on you. This happened to Briscoe in the Indiana game: guys just backed off, then crowded him when he got in the paint, and he had to shove them away.
If you have some semblance of a jumper that doesn't happen. But if all you have in the toolbox is a straight line-drive, then you're going to invariably start running over guys...and the charges will follow.Comment
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I've watched lots of the mixed film of the incoming freshmen. I'm not an expert, but I really like Gabriel's shot. This was a guy who was 6'1" as a FR in high school, and now he's 6'10" and mostly listed as a wing. He can definitely stroke it from 3 territory. Overall, I think our outside shooting will keep lots of teams honest. We'll have plenty of bigs that can score.Comment
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