Kentucky vs. gross orange predictions

[JFCats22]

What ya got for Saturday?

It will take a huge effort for UK to beat UT, IMO. Hagans rough play is really concerning and I worry that Bone is going to abuse him. I also am concerned about the PJ/Reid vs. Williams/Schofield match ups.

UT is simply crushing teams in the SEC right now. They have only had 2 SEC games be within 12 points. I don't think UK matches up well with UT. They are arguably better at every position this year.

UT - 79
UK - 70

[Joneslab]

It's the kind of game where Kentucky could play well and still lose. Tennessee is that good.

But with that said, last year's team as rough around the edges as they were swelled up and got Tennessee in the SEC Tournament. And that was a game where we took Tennessee's best shot.

They're better this year but Kentucky is WAY better. For that reason and because home teams usually get it done during these evening ESPN games, I'm going to take the Cats by a smidge.

Tennessee 73
Kentucky 77

[Joneslab]

And no, Tennessee is not better at every position.

Bone has Hagans but if Hagans is the North Carolina Hagans, he's the better player. Hagans absolutely has more upside and can control the game defensively if he's going right.

No argument on Schofield and Williams, although the way Keldon Johnson will rebound the ball doesn't put him that far behind Schofield...again, if he's going right.

After those three Tennessee is not a juggernaut by any means. PJ Washington is significantly better than whoever they throw at him at the 4. I like Tyler Herro more than Lamonte Turner.

Crazzed wants to make these games these wild mismatches but this game is absolutely not that on paper. This Kentucky team has a roster that stacks up talent-wise. Tennessee's just old.

[Joneslab]

Also disagree with crazzed that Kentucky doesn't match up with Tennessee well. I think we match up with Tennessee very well. Very similarly built teams in fact.

Kentucky has problems with long, athletic, twitchy teams. No coincidence that LSU and Alabama beat us--they're the two most athletic teams in the SEC.

Tennessee has athletes (Bowden) but they're built more on power and skill. Very similar to Kentucky that way.

Again: this isn't a mismatch on paper at all. Rosters are similar. The computer models are close. Tennessee is certainly the better team but I don't think it's any way drastic. This is a game UK needs to find a way to win.

[JFCats22]

And no, Tennessee is not better at every position.

Bone has Hagans but if Hagans is the North Carolina Hagans, he's the better player. Hagans absolutely has more upside and can control the game defensively if he's going right.

No argument on Schofield and Williams, although the way Keldon Johnson will rebound the ball doesn't put him that far behind Schofield...again, if he's going right.

After those three Tennessee is not a juggernaut by any means. PJ Washington is significantly better than whoever they throw at him at the 4. I like Tyler Herro more than Lamonte Turner.

Crazzed wants to make these games these wild mismatches but this game is absolutely not that on paper. This Kentucky team has a roster that stacks up talent-wise. Tennessee's just old.

No, I don't think it's a wild mismatch at all. I just think UT is better. And, I disagree that Hagans is better than Bone. He's just not. Bone averages more points, more rebounds, more assists, fewer turnovers, better FT shooter and better 3 point shooter. Hagans averages more steals but on ball defense is equal, IMO.

Hagans < Bone
Herro < Turner
Johnson < Schofield
Washingon > Alexander
Reid < Williams

Plus, UT's bench is vastly superior to UK's. Bowden averages 12 per game off the bench and UT gets 24 points per game from their bench, UK gets about 15

Can UK win? Yeah, definitely. I just think UK has to be near perfect and UT have an off night for it to happen.

At Rupp UK will probably be favored by 2-3 points. UT is the best team we have seen since Duke and I don't think the LSU, Miss St, KU, etc..version of UK can beat UT. It's going to take something big from UK to win it (as it would against Duke, Gonzaga, Virginia, etc...)

[Joneslab]

How many points Tennessee gets from anyone is a little bit misleading simply because they're not very good defensively. They're kind of similar to North Carolina. They'll let you score.

Kentucky certainly doesn't have to be near perfect and of all the UK games I've ever watched, I've only seen a college team play near perfect basketball a handful of times. The '96 team could probably get there and that's about it. It just doesn't happen on this level hardly ever. Kentucky just needs to be better than it has been in the last two second halves.

And really, if Vandy can be a bad flagrant foul call away and Missouri and Florida can play with them until the final minutes Kentucky can win this game.

[Catsrock]

Ugly win...

UT 66
UK 68

[Lighthouse]

I think if we beat UT this year, it has to be Saturday. I also think we win Saturday because our lids are seasoned defensively and UT isn't.

UK 75
UT 71

[GOCAT15]

PJ has to be on the court for at least 75% of the game for us to have a shot, he can't get into foul trouble.

[TrueblueCATfan]

We simply can't lose 2 in a row at home

UK..........................70

Ugly Orange........67

[Brother_Vol]

Way too nervous to make a prediction. That said, I know what we'll get out of the Vols tomorrow. They're a model of consistency. I think it's going to be close regardless but if UK plays their best ball they'll get the win at home. Most important matchup in my mind is Hagans/Bone. If Hagans doesn't perform and keep Bone in check the Vols win. And I think you can say that about most teams that play the Vols. It starts with Bone.

Most of you probably know that me and my Lady_Cat (she's a UK grad) met at a bar watching UT vs UK. So tomorrow is the day we'll celebrate our 6th anniversary. We'll go back to the same bar to root on our teams. And one of us will "win the anniversary". Truth is though, I always win no matter the outcome. I've WAY out kicked my coverage on that one.

[Brother_Vol]

Oh and Big Orange is not gross. I'll be sure to post a pic of my Orange and White checkerboard vans that I've been wearing this season. Also I've been planning to show you guys how to turn Kentucky Bourbon into Tennessee Whiskey in one easy step. Stay tuned for more on that

[Joneslab]

Way too nervous to make a prediction. That said, I know what we'll get out of the Vols tomorrow. They're a model of consistency. I think it's going to be close regardless but if UK plays their best ball they'll get the win at home. Most important matchup in my mind is Hagans/Bone. If Hagans doesn't perform and keep Bone in check the Vols win. And I think you can say that about most teams that play the Vols. It starts with Bone.

Most of you probably know that me and my Lady_Cat (she's a UK grad) met at a bar watching UT vs UK. So tomorrow is the day we'll celebrate our 6th anniversary. We'll go back to the same bar to root on our teams. And one of us will "win the anniversary". Truth is though, I always win no matter the outcome. I've WAY out kicked my coverage on that one.

Really nice post and happy anniversary.

[40bill]

Happy Anniversary Brother Vol.

and to be honest, I've really got a dilemma any more.....I like Barnes as a coach and like the way these UT kids play.
I'm getting the same queasy feeling about Louisville. Mack and Satterfield are hard for me to dislike and now that Jurich is gone as long as I don't listen to Card fans I'm finding the old flames playing out.

[Joneslab]

I don't think this means a ton but Tennessee has only played one ranked team since December 9th. Kentucky has played five.