UK/UNC game

[JFCats22]

Anybody confident that UK can win this game? I am just not seeing it. Neither are any of the computers or rating systems.

I think UNC wins and wins pretty easily. Somewhere in the 10-14 point range.

[Dwight Schrute]

The UK team that played against Utah last weekend has a shot, but otherwise I think we get blown out.

Tarholes: 91
Cats 76

[Joneslab]

You would like to think this UK team could rise up and get a big one for the first time this season.

Cam Johnson is oddly their best player so far. Shooting almost 50% from deep and just killed Gonzaga last weekend. He's one of those match-up nightmares at his size, and I'm not sure Keldon Johnson is ready for him.

Carolina, in true Carolina fashion, will push the ball relentlessly and make you get back. Coby White is a blur; John Wall type speed. They'll run it down the court fast but the difference in this Carolina team than in years past is they'll look to shoot from the perimeter more than pound it inside. Which isn't good for UK given how we've guarded the perimeter this year.

If UK plays their absolute best game they can hang in but I feel like Carolina is 8 or 10 points better. Don't necessarily think it will be a blow-out because Carolina won't really guard you. They'll try to win in a track meet. That sounds great in theory but I just don't think that's a great game for UK to get into with our personnel. We'll have to score 90 to beat them and I just don't think we can get there.

Kentucky 82
North Carolina 89

[Dwight Schrute]

I realize worrying about your seeding right now is akin to worrying about your 401k strategy when you're broke, but if the Cats lose this one we're looking at a real possibility of zero quality wins with a real bad loss of Seton Hall.

This team has a bunch of other worries so seeding is the least of them, but that's a possibility.

[Joneslab]

Still quite a few games out there to improve seeding because the SEC is so tough at the top. And you've also still got Kansas out there.

But I've seen nothing from Kentucky that would suggest it can beat a top 10 team.

[JFCats22]

I realize worrying about your seeding right now is akin to worrying about your 401k strategy when you're broke, but if the Cats lose this one we're looking at a real possibility of zero quality wins with a real bad loss of Seton Hall.

This team has a bunch of other worries so seeding is the least of them, but that's a possibility.

Agreed. Unfortunately playing the NCAA tourney in Louisville is not an option any longer. I think this UK team is going to have real issues with UL and KU as well. Without any quality non-conf wins I just don't see this team getting above that 5/6 seed.

It's still early-ish and things can change, but it's a pretty remarkable drop from where EVERYONE (fans, analysts, etc..) predicted this team to be just 6-7 weeks ago.

[Joneslab]

The Louisville game is important for a lot more than seeding.

Just symbolically that's a game Kentucky needs to win. Given where they've come from and taking into consideration where Kentucky was supposed to be, to lose that would be a big-time blow. It would be further proof that Kentucky has slipped further down than many at first believed even after they watched the Duke game.

Hopefully UK can find some fight here in the next few weeks.

And looking ahead to the SEC, the league isn't as tough as people once thought but it's still a league with a lot of land mines. The UK team we've seen is easily an 8 or 9 loss team in the SEC.

[Uncle Dave]

I am completely baffled as to why this team, riddled with consensus 4* & 5* players from top to bottom, can look so completely unremarkable.

[JFCats22]

I am completely baffled as to why this team, riddled with consensus 4* & 5* players from top to bottom, can look so completely unremarkable.

Because these ratings (as we have seen over and over again) are a total crap shoot.

And, outside of KJ, all of these players have major deficiencies that are causing problems.

[Joneslab]

I am completely baffled as to why this team, riddled with consensus 4* & 5* players from top to bottom, can look so completely unremarkable.

Two reasons, IMO.

Can't defend. Can't shoot from outside. (There are other issues: point guards can't score. PJ Washington is inconsistent. Very little rim protection. E.J. Montgomery and Nick Richards are both works in progress. Only one true playmaker against the shot clock. But those two are the biggies in my mind.)

The good news is, some of Cal's teams have improved in both those metrics during the season before.

Bad news is, no Cal team with the exception of 2013 has had this far to go.

[Joneslab]

Here's a telling stat that to me says so much about the season.

Four times this year, Kentucky has given up double-digit threes to its opponent.

In forty games in 2012, that team only gave up double-digit threes four times.

Wrap your mind around that for a second. Think about the dogs UK has faced so far and the brutality that Kentucky team had to face to win a title.

If you can't guard the three at the college level you don't have a shot. None. You might as well just go home and find another hobby because you're winning nothing.

Until this team buys in defensively it won't be an NCAA Tournament team.

[JFCats22]

^
I think the 2013 (with healthy Noel) would beat this year's team right now. After some early issues that team had pretty much sorted things out and won 9 of 10 I believe when Noel got hurt. I don't think they were going to ever be a great team but they were playing well.

Now, maybe this team does the same thing and really starts to improve. We shall see.

[Joneslab]

^
I think the 2013 (with healthy Noel) would beat this year's team right now. After some early issues that team had pretty much sorted things out and won 9 of 10 I believe when Noel got hurt. I don't think they were going to ever be a great team but they were playing well.

Now, maybe this team does the same thing and really starts to improve. We shall see.

Of course right around the time Noel went down that 2013 team would've probably beaten the 2014 team around the time it went to South Carolina and lost.

So you never know. I do really like Kentucky's inside game and think power play is so necessary in the NCAA Tournament.

[Lighthouse]

UNC has Roy Williams, which gives me hope for a Win Saturday.

[JFCats22]

UNC has Roy Williams, which gives me hope for a Win Saturday.

Roy Williams (at UNC) vs. UK:

Overall: 8-6
Against Tubby: 3-1
Against BCG: 2-0
Against Cal: 3-5