Is this our year?

[johnkyblue]

Maybe what we need is some gloom and doom. That's where we were in 2005. 2006 spring game I'm like, "Wow! We almost have a third string and can almost stop the run!" Everybody else is running around going, "Ditch Mitch and Rich." Everybody remembers 2007, but 2006 we had the same record.

[SBCatMan]

It seems to me we had this same thread a few months back. Back then, I thought I posted some good stuff. I'm not going to take the time to do that today. So, here are my summary comments:

1) I am tired of trying to be competitive and play exciting football. I'd rather play lousy and win than be competitive and lose.
2) 2015 was HUGELY disappointing -- Florida, Auburn, Vandy, UofL: all squandered opportunities. But we all know that.
3) The schedule is not as daunting as it appears. A lot of teams will be installing new systems under new coaches and we have some key "swing games" at home.
4) Southern Miss is the key to the season. Win that, and RV's comments above are straight on accurate. Lose to Southern Miss and it will be a tough year.
5) The OP is correct -- we will be better in 2017. But, I am tired of waiting.

[Old School]

I hope for improvement this year but I don't think the goal should be measured in Bowl Games. The goal should be measured in excitement and good play. Make the fans optimistic for the future. Remember how we loved Mumme? But the wins weren't that great, were they?

I don't think this is our year to break out. I look to next year after these fine, young players have had a year to see what's demanded. That's the year we should make a splash. With a decent year in 2016 and a rising Junior Quarterback on the field for 2017 and more depth across the team, I like 2017.

They were 5-7 last year. Win 6, and they go to a bowl game. Win 5, and they haven't really improved on last year, or the year before. I'm not sure there's a fair way to measure improvement for this team or program that doesn't involve making a bowl game.

Excitement and good play might have been worthy goals in year 2, maybe even 3. It's year four, and they need to win six games to sustain fan interest. If you're inclined to disagree with that proposition, 2017 ticket sales if they don't win 6 will be all the proof needed. (Hopefully it doesn't come to that.)

Mumme had some great wins at UK. It wasn't just that the team was fun to watch when he was there; he won some good games, and that's what does the trick with fans, positive momentum, etc.

Mumme's first win, at home against favored Louisville in 1997, was a lot of fun. After fielding one of the very worst offenses in the nation under Curry (usually some variation on run to the right, no gain; run to the left, no gain; run up the middle, no gain; punt) Couch threw for 398 yards and 4 TDs. The weather was fantastic and the team was fun to watch.

That same year Kentucky traveled to Indiana as a 7 point underdog and won 49-7. Couch's numbers were terrrific (7 TD passes) and the weather was too. Indiana wore black uniforms for the first time ever in that game. UK's receivers and RBs spread out the stats. Indiana was an annual rival back then.

The 1997 win over Alabama was a lot of fun too. Alabama was ranked and favored. Kentucky came back with some really exciting plays to win it under the lights and the goalposts came down.

The 1998 opener was the first game in Papa John's Stadium and Kentucky won 68-34 after leading 42-10 at halftime and 62-16 or something similar when the walk-ons were put in (and scored again). It was a hot, sunny day in a hostile environment and Kentucky was all over it. Couch put on a clinic.

The win over Indiana that year was actually a close and exciting game; IU used a defensive scheme that they later traveled to teach, marketing it as the way to shut down the Air Raid. A very long TD pass on a fake punt from around the UK 20 yard line (Matt Mumme to Garry Davis) won that game. Again, back then, that was an annual rivalry game, usually on ESPN or ESPN2.

The win against South Carolina that year was another close game.

UK then traveled to Baton Rouge for a night game against a ranked LSU team and won a close one with some big plays. It was a thrilling game.

The Kentucky vs. Mississippi State game that year (1998) was one of the best ever played in Commonwealth Stadium. MSU had a very good team that year, and they won the SEC West despite taking a conference loss in this one. Joe Lee Dunn's tenacious and unpredictable defense vs. Mumme's juggernaut offense was a spectacle. The lead changed hands several times. UK scored the winning TD late on a lightning Couch to Yeast end zone corner fade. Final score: Kentucky 37, Mississippi State 35. After that game MSU, already 3-1 in the SEC with a win against Auburn, went on to defeat Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss - all bowl teams that year - to go to the SEC Championship Game and then the Cotton Bowl. That was a really good Mississippi State team that beat some other good programs that year, but Kentucky got the best of them in a really memorable game that night.

The Vanderbilt game that year was a blowout in which Couch and Yeast put up monster stats in their final game in Commonwealth.

The 1999 team returned to a refurbished Memorial Stadium at Indiana as underdogs and Dusty Bonner and James Whalen had a great day in front of a packed house in beautiful weather. Kentucky won 44-35.

A ranked and favored Arkansas team came to Commonwealth with a great WR (Anthony Lucas). A UK DB shut him down. That was a really good Arkansas team that finished the season with a 27-6 whipping of Texas in the Cotton Bowl. They were good enough to beat Auburn, Tennessee (9-3) and MSU (10-2) that year, but not UK. Kentucky beat Arkansas 31-20 that day, again in beautiful weather.

Kentucky beat LSU 31-5 that year in a strong all around performance, again in terrific weather.

The 1999 night game at 5-4 Vanderbilt was a game that would send one of those two teams to a bowl game. Vanderbilt had beaten a very good Ole Miss team already that year, and the week prior had barely lost, 13-5, at Florida. It was an incredibly tight and low scoring game, and was maybe the one game during Mumme's tenure in which the defense won the game, with some big, dramatic late plays. Kentucky came away with a 19-17 win and a bowl game in hand.

In Mumme's last season, Indiana came to Commonwealth on a beautiful evening and an ESPN2 audience. Their new QB Antwaan Randle-El established himself as a force to be reckoned with, but freshman DT Dewayne Robertson demolished him on a couple of late plays, and Kentucky won a pretty exciting game 41-34.

In his first three years, Mumme beat three ranked teams, and the SEC West champion, was 5-1 against UK's traditional rivals, and was 11-13 in SEC play. Watching the offense move the ball most of the time and put up points was nice; watching the team win was nicer, and was what really brought fans to the stadium. It was fun to watch Mumme's teams, but the wins were by far the biggest reason for that.

I think the real key this year will be how Kentucky plays from mid-season onward. I agree with SBCatFan that the program can ill afford a stumble in the opener against Southern Miss; fans will melt away if they lose that game. Likewise, it's critical that they beat either Carolina or Vanderbilt. UK has a bye week in midseason, and it's from there on that the season is determined. If they fold after midseason again, ticket sales for 2017 will crater. They're 0-16 vs. Division IA teams under Stoops after midseason; wins against Alabama State and Charlotte aren't enough to matter, even if Charlotte technically was DI last year, on paper.

The schedule isn't favorable this year, but it never is. Never. This year, they're capable of going 4-0 out of conference. Louisville may be favored, but UK showed last year they can beat that team. If UK isn't favored against Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Missouri, then either those lines will be close, or the season has become a disaster at that point. As someone else mentioned, there's always a team on the schedule that isn't nearly as good as they looked in the preseason. Last year it was Auburn, and UK blew a game they should've won against the Tigers. The year before it was Florida, with the same result. The year before that it was Mississippi State. Kentucky has to close the deal in winnable games to show progress and sustain and increase fan interest.

Is this the year? Who knows. It's possible, but it was eminently possible each of the past two years as well, and the team didn't get it together to close the deal. They have to make their own breaks instead of mistakes, and grab more of the winnable games.

Oddsmakers will likely put UK at 5.5 wins this year. It all comes down to which side of that line this team takes itself to. Mental mistakes by players or coaches = <5.5. Sharp playcalling and execution = >5.5. Yes, the defensive front isn't expected to be much. The offense will have to be better than expected. The DBs will have to meet or exceed expectations, the WRs are going to have to be a lot better and a lot more consistent, the QB play will have to be better than it has been, and even there they'll need some breaks along the defensive front (avoid the injury bug, force and recover some fumbles, nail some key TFLs and sacks). It's possible.

[KevinHall]

Here's the schedule. Going to be tough to get six wins. The game at Missouri will probably be huge. They aren't expected to be good but its still a road game. Also first game of the season is really big. USM was pretty good last year. They won't be a bunny. New Mexico State and Austin Peay are gimme's. Vandy should be a win and South Carolina is a good chance to win. No shot against Bama,Tennessee and Georgia. You can never say a win against Florida when you haven't beaten team in 30 years. That's a very unlikely win. Miss State is a wild card. But UK just hasn't been able to quite get over the hump with them. They seem to have good depth,usually and that's what kills UK. Then that leaves with UL. It just may come down to that game once again to get that magical 6th win. I'm just not sure they can get it this season. I also think Stoops needs a bowl badly. I'm not sure if he will survive another 5-7 season and if they win less than five then it is probably over for him.

http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-16/2016-kentucky-wildcats-football-schedule.php

[largebluej]

I don't see six wins. Hope I'm wrong. But there have been a few comments that suggest Stoops will be gone if doesn't reach that mark. Don't see that happening either, due to the ridiculous buyout in his last ridiculous extension. Short of violations that would enable firing for cause and avoiding the buyout, he'll get a 5th year even if the bottom falls out this season.

[johnkyblue]

Mumme Mumme Mumme....

Brooks won 8 games twice. I'll give you the extra game helps a lot. With it, Mumme would have won 8 once. I like Brooks' teams better because they played sound football.

[Matt Dillon]

I don't care if they run Pee Wee fb plays, NFL plays or anything in between as long as they win. Just win, baby.

[SBCatMan]

New Mexico State and Austin Peay are gimmees. That's two.
Vandy is at home. That had better be three.
So Carolina is at home and will have a new staff and a new system. And, we beat them the last 2 years. Four?
Missouri is not very good and also has a new coach. I do not care if it is on the road. Five?
So, Southern Miss is, IMO, the key. And, IMO, Southern Miss is better than any of the first five teams I have mentioned.

Then, WE cannot beat Florida, but everyone else seems to, and UF has QB issues.
Miss St is at home, but will be tough.
UGA has a new coach and is at home, but they are still good.
UT and Bama? Yeah, right.
And then again, UofL. On the road. And their QB is back.

But, what makes this so hard is that we really still know so very little about us. IMO, EVERYTHING revolves around the play we get out of the QB position. The rest of the offense is talented and deep. The defense has issues, but then, it always has issues. If we get anything resembling slightly above average play out of the QB position, we can win six -- or more. If not, we can lose 10.

[johnkyblue]

Everything revolves around the DL. I don't mean Elam by himself, at all. I mean the entire 3 deep at that position.

[Blue Heaven]

Everything revolves around the DL. I don't mean Elam by himself, at all. I mean the entire 3 deep at that position.

I agree. We have to stop the run and pressure the qb. We haven't been able to do that in quite some time.

[Joneslab]

We also need much improved quarterback play.

You can't beat anybody in this league if you go drive after drive without getting anything through the air. Towles led the SEC in interceptions (14) and was among the worst in the conference in passing touchdowns (9).

If we can't improve on that it doesn't matter how good the defense is; it's going to inevitably get worn down from being on the field so long.

[UKtimefor9]

I don't see 6 wins, I don't even see 5 wins with this team and the schedule. No clue what Mitch should do with Stoops if the season ends up like most think it will. Not sure who he would find that would be any better or make any difference.

[George]

To answer the original question, no. I doubt this is our year. I, like most, don't see six wins on the schedule. The good news for Stoops is that we probably can't do much better than him, so his job just might be safe for another season; the bad news is that another losing season will only make everything worse. He won't pull decent players for much longer if he can't find a way to win.

[Spiritof96]

I'm down for 7 wins.

To quote Tony Kornheiser, "It's the era of unbridled optimism. Everyone should go outside and take your pants off!"

EDIT: I forgot the bowl game win... make that 8 wins.

[ridgerunner]

I stick with what I said a few yrs ago, if Stoops can't get it done, I really never expect it to change, so win or lose we need to supports Stoops and staff, cause Nick Saban ain't coming here, or anyone else that has a winning program at this level. We play to win each week, so we have a chance, in all but 3 games. This yr it will be on the offense, we can't waste opportunities to put points on the scoreboard and the defense has to make others work to score and not give up big plays, which once again brings us to special teams, absolutely the key for us winning, this has been our biggest down side for the Stoops era! We must stop letting teams play on a short field!