UK & The SEC East

[gerntz]

I'm feeling the love..........

[Old School]

I love that first post in this thread.

A couple of things to add:

Kentucky got a good draw from the West this year, a better one than everyone thought at the start of the season. Take care of business in the West and UK charts it's own destiny in the East standings.

Missouri gets Arkansas on the road and Mississippi State at home, but already lost to Kentucky. The Tigers' next two games are Florida and at Georgia, a tough stretch. They finish at Arkansas (and will in future years as well).

Tennessee got Arkansas (lost) and travels to Alabama (as Kentucky does next year). Their upcoming schedule: Georgia, bye, at Alabama, at Kentucky, South Carolina, North Texas. Kentucky will not be overlooked by that squad. But either way, 5-3 in the SEC for UK would be good for 3rd place if Tennessee drops the Georgia and Alabama games, to go with losses to Florida and Arkansas, even if Tennessee beat Kentucky. Back to back blowouts to Georgia and Alabama, after blowing leads in three games, is what the doctor ordered here leading up to their visit to Kentucky.

Carolina has to travel to Texas A&M and now has to travel to LSU as well. I don't see Spurrier's team approaching .500 in SEC play, or a bowl game. They'll need a couple of TD+ upsets to go bowling.

And don't forget, Missouri and Tennessee still have to play each other, and one of them takes an L in that. That game is in Columbia this year.

Having said all that, nothing is a given. Vanderbilt gave #3 Ole Miss all it could handle. Auburn is vulnerable but also dangerous. Mississippi State is a very good football team and their upcoming schedule is Troy, Louisiana Tech, Kentucky, bye, at Missouri, so they will be focused and prepared for the Kentucky game, and Dak Prescott is the kind of player that has historically (and last week) given Kentucky fits. Tennessee is inconsistent but dangerous, and hungry, and they field a talented roster. Georgia, on the road...tall order, but not a foregone conclusion. For Georgia, Kentucky comes right after Florida and right before a trip to Auburn. Optimally (though unlikely) Auburn would get their act together after leaving Commonwealth, rip off wins against Arkansas, Ole Miss and A&M so that Georgia, hopefully, is tempted to look ahead to that trip to Auburn when they should be focused on Kentucky.

5-3 in SEC play would likely good for third place in the East, and a nice milestone. Consider the last three years (2014, 2013, 2012): 2-6, 0-8, 0-8. That's 2-22 in SEC competition, compared to 2-1 already this year. Things are looking up.

Another measurement, straight from the scoreboard:

2011-2013: Florida 110, Kentucky 17
2014-2015: Florida 50, Kentucky 39

2011-2013: Missouri 81, Kentucky 27 (2 games)
2014-2015: Missouri 33, Kentucky 31

2011-2013: South Carolina 127, Kentucky 48
2014-2015: Kentucky 71, South Carolina 60

2011-2013: Vanderbilt 100, Kentucky 14 (ugly to see and hard to believe, but true)
2014-2015: Kentucky 17, Vanderbilt 7 (1 game so far)

And another one, from the scoreboard and standings:

2012-2014, in SEC play:

1. Georgia 18-6
2. Missouri 16-8
3. South Carolina 15-9
4. Florida 14-10
5. Vanderbilt 9-15
6. Tennessee 6-18
7. Kentucky 2-22

2015, in SEC play:

1. Florida 3-0
2. Georgia 2-1
2. Kentucky 2-1
4. Missouri 1-1
5. Tennessee 0-2
5. Vanderbilt 0-2
7. South Carolina 0-3

[RV]

Good job Old School! Since I'm too lazy to do the work, what would the last portion of your post be if divided like the rest was? IOW, SEC records 2011-2013 vs.2014-2015 to date.

[Catsrock]

Lots of work left to be done--BUT with UT beating UGA we are for the moment at least second in the east! That's progress. Take advantage Cats!

[Matt Dillon]

Lots of work left to be done--BUT with UT beating UGA we are for the moment at least second in the east! That's progress. Take advantage Cats!

They do, indeed, need to seize the moment. They have a hard row to hoe ahead of them though.

[Catsrock]

Come on Matt its WE not THEY!

[johnkyblue]

Go Mizzou!

[Matt Dillon]

Come on Matt its WE not THEY!

......

[Old School]

Good job Old School! Since I'm too lazy to do the work, what would the last portion of your post be if divided like the rest was? IOW, SEC records 2011-2013 vs.2014-2015 to date.

2011-2013

1. .875 Alabama 21-3
2t. .792 Georgia 19-5
2t. .792 LSU 19-5
4. .750 South Carolina 18-6
5. .625 Texas A&M 10-6
6. .563 Missouri 9-7
7. .542 Florida 13-11
8t. .458 Vanderbilt 11-13
8t. .458 Auburn 11-13
10. .375 Mississippi State 9-15
11. .333 Arkansas 8-16
12. .250 Ole Miss 6-18
13. .167 Tennessee 4-20
14. .083 Kentucky 2-22 .083

2014-2015

1. .818 Alabama 9-2 +/-0 spots
2. .727 Missouri 8-3 +4 spots
3t. .667 Georgia 8-4 -1
3t. .667 Florida 8-4 +4
5t. .636 LSU 7-4 -3
5t. .636 Ole Miss 7-4 +7
5t. .636 Mississippi State 7-4 +3
8. .500 Texas A&M 5-5 -3
9. .400 Auburn 4-6 -1
10t. .364 Kentucky 4-7 +4
10t. .364 Tennessee 4-7 +3
12. .273 Arkansas 3-8 -1
13. .250 South Carolina 3-9 -9
14. .091 Vanderbilt 1-10 -6

Net change in rankings, 2011-2013 vs. 2014-2015:

+7 Ole Miss
+4 Kentucky
+4 Missouri
+4 Florida
+3 Mississippi State
+3 Tennessee
+0 Alabama
-1 Georgia
-1 Auburn
-1 Arkansas
-3 LSU
-3 Texas A&M
-6 Vanderbilt
-9 South Carolina

Net change in SEC win %, 2011-2013 vs. 2014-2015:

+ .386 Ole Miss (Freeze, 2012)
+ .281 Kentucky (Stoops, 2013)
+ .261 Mississippi State
+ .197 Tennessee (Jones, 2013)
+ .164 Missouri
+ .125 Florida (McElwain, 2015)
- .058 Auburn (Malzahn, 2013)
- .057 Alabama
- .060 Arkansas (Bielema, 2013)
- .125 Georgia
- .125 Texas A&M (Sumlin, 2012)
- .156 LSU
- .367 Vanderbilt (Mason, 2014)
- .500 South Carolina

A win on Thursday puts Kentucky at #9 at 5-7, .417, +5 spots, +.334.

The only program with better improvement than Kentucky in that time period is Ole Miss, and Hugh Freeze had a full year head start on Stoops. Freeze also inherited a team that went 9-4 in two of the three years preceding the stats above; Stoops did not. No SEC East team has improved as much in that period.

[RV]

Measurable improvement along with visual improvement. Me likee.

[Brother_Vol]

Go Mizzou!

Was pulling hard for them. Who would have thought everyone would need help keeping Florida from winning the East this year?

[gerntz]

They do, indeed, need to seize the moment. They have a hard row to hoe ahead of them though.

If "They" refers to UK, not really. Don't play a currently Top 25-ranked team the rest of the year. I can't recall that happening with seven games remaining before, ever. Overall easiest schedule for a year, ever. Uga got a whole lot easier. Do I expect we'll win every remaining game? No. Likely not enough depth for that such that we'll get worn down or have ups/downs. Do we have a decent shot or better at every one? Now yes. But just can't tell which ones, particularly in next four.

[lotsaloanstoo]

If "They" refers to UK, not really. Don't play a currently Top 25-ranked team the rest of the year. I can't recall that happening with seven games remaining before, ever. Overall easiest schedule for a year, ever. Uga got a whole lot easier. Do I expect we'll win every remaining game? No. Likely not enough depth for that such that we'll get worn down or have ups/downs. Do we have a decent shot or better at every one? Now yes. But just can't tell which ones, particularly in next four.

I agree. In the same vein though, I don't remember the first five games of the season being as hard as they have been this year either. Usually it's three gimme's and Florida.

Georgia is now at least in the ballpark as far as games UK can compete in, and UK at least has a decent track record of being able to compete against Georgia. I think Auburn, Tennessee, and Louisville are the three competitive games left on the schedule that we must slide to the W column. We should beat Vandy and Charlotte anyway.

If we somehow pick up those 5 wins (Auburn, Tennessee, Louisville along with Vandy and Charlotte) then you're looking at finishing the season ranked, and the rest of the country better look out at that point, we will rock the recruiting world for at least the next three years if Barnhart will pay to keep the coaching team in place.

[RV]

We have 7 regular season games left. If our schedule were broken into segments of 4, at this point we're in decent shape to have a good year.

ULL, @SC, UF & Mizzou: Prior to the season, most would have taken a 3-1 record and said thank you very much. Now some, including me, look back at the Florida game with a bit of remorse, although any of those four could've turned out as losses so I will gladly accept our current record and look forward to the rest.

EKU, Auburn, @MSU & UT: Prior to the season almost everyone would've said 1-3 with the EKU game a runaway win. It was a win but a 14 point come from behind OT win. Many lessons to be learned there by the team and the staff and probably even the fans. A 1-3 record from these four will put UK in OK shape for postseason play but 2-2 would make the postseason a near certainty. A 3-1 or 4-0 slate would turn this into a very special season in the making.

@UGa, @VU, Charlotte & ul: Prior to the season most marked this group as a sure 2-2. Not so fast my friend. Vandy has a very good defense and we have to go to their place. Add to that the fact ours is a game they KNOW they could win above all other SEC games. Better not sleep on that one. Charlotte should be a win but as Eastern should have showed us, no win should be taken for granted. A 2-2 record would assure us of postseason play at this point and depending on the outcome of our next three games on the schedule, could vault us from a good season, to a very good or even great season. A 3-1 or 4-0 record in those last four would make a great finish to what is shaping up to be a successful season and would jump start the 2017 recruiting class along with solidifying our 2016 class.

Will be interesting to see how the chips fall.

[Matt Dillon]

If "They" refers to UK, not really. Don't play a currently Top 25-ranked team the rest of the year. I can't recall that happening with seven games remaining before, ever. Overall easiest schedule for a year, ever. Uga got a whole lot easier. Do I expect we'll win every remaining game? No. Likely not enough depth for that such that we'll get worn down or have ups/downs. Do we have a decent shot or better at every one? Now yes. But just can't tell which ones, particularly in next four.

If they (or we) are to have a decent chance against anyone with a good running QB, UK is going to have to learn how to contain such a player.