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Someone explain the 2-point conversion decision

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  • Jaxcat
    Senior Member
    • Jul 2025
    • 703

    #1

    Someone explain the 2-point conversion decision

    Often, the decision is obvious. But, there are times that a coach will immediately signal for a 2-point conversion attempt and I have no idea what the logic is behind the decision.

    For instance, in the SB last night, NE trailed Sea 29-7, a 22-point differential. So, theoretically, NE needs 3 TDs, 2 extra points and one 2-point conversion to tie. They cannot catch up with two TDs, they must score 3. In that particular game, it was obvious they weren't going to catch Seattle, but, still. NE does score a TD, making the score 29-13, a 16-point differential. And they go for 2 and do not convert. I told my wife before they scored the TD that NE would go for 2 and I have no logical explanation as to why they would choose to do so.

    My thinking: NE needs 3 TDs and, to tie, must make ONE 2-point conversion. Upon making the first TD, why in the world would you go for 2 when you still need 2 more TDs and, if you fail (as they did), you now have to make TWO 2-point conversions to tie? I knew they'd try for 2, but I cannot understand the logic. Wouldn't it be smarter to kick the XP, at least on the first TD? A successful conversion and you still only need one 2-point conversion to tie. If you have a ton of confidence in your offense at that point, maybe, and I mean MAYBE, you consider going for 2 when you score the second TD (although I'd still kick the XP and go for 2 for the winner). Even if you don't convert on the 2nd one, you can tie with a 2-point conversion on the 3rd TD. The way NE played it, they HAD to get 2-point conversions on both the 2nd and 3rd TDs just to tie.

    Can someone explain why NE made the right choice, supposedly? The SB was just one of about 10 different instances of coaches going for 2 when I could see no reason to do so at that point in the game (and don't get me started on the coaches going for 4th down instead of kicking chip shot FGs).
  • Sieken
    Junior Member
    • Jul 2025
    • 10

    #2
    It gives you the option of going for it two more times to setup the tie. If they kick it on the first one, then down 29-14, score again 29-20, miss the two point conversion, you have no chance at a tie with another touchdown. Everything was a long shot last night with the level Seattles Defense was playing at but mathematically it made sense.

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    • Jaxcat
      Senior Member
      • Jul 2025
      • 703

      #3
      I see what you're saying. But, in my head, kicking 2 XP and then try for 2 to tie after the 3rd TD makes more sense. You only need to get one 2-pt conversion. If you try and fail on the first attempt, you'd need two. And, as you said, if you kick the first and miss the 2 on the 2nd, you've really messed up. Hence, why I'd kick both of the first two and then go for 2 on the second. Not sure, statistically, which one has the higher chance of success.

      Of course, Seattle's defense was not going to give up 3 quick TDs last night. No way, no how.

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      • UKSanders
        Junior Member
        • Jul 2025
        • 15

        #4
        I kind of agree with you, Jax. Momentum is a crazy thing…

        I feel like if you score and kick, you keep the pressure on the team with the lead.

        Then, if you score again and kick the xp again, momentum is really building, the the team with the lead knows now it’s a one score game, and that often causes them to play more tentative and more likely to make mistakes.

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        • Jaxcat
          Senior Member
          • Jul 2025
          • 703

          #5
          ^UKS: hadn't really considered that aspect, but you're right about momentum and teams tightening up when a comfortable lead becomes very uncomfortable. If I'm down 22 points in the 4th quarter, my focus would be on tying the game, not winning in regulation. It's a long shot either way, but I'm not going to choose a strategy early that, should it fail, means I can't force overtime. Hence, I wouldn't kick the first XP and then try for 2 on the 2nd TD because, as Sieken pointed out, if you fail to convert on the 2nd conversion attempt, you're still down 2 scores. I believe once you opt to kick the 1st XP, you automatically kick the 2nd and wait until you score a 3rd TD to try for 2 points to tie. If my team manages such a heroic comeback in the 4th quarter, I like my chances in OT.

          Comment

          • SBCatMan
            Senior Member
            • Oct 2014
            • 1775

            #6
            Jaxcat, IMO, your logic is correct. Keep taking the relatively “sure” point in order to stay within striking distance with an eventual “2.” Missing a 2-point conversion hurts you more than simply bypassing an opportunity to go for 2.

            On a related note, one of the most glaring errors in bypassing the 2-point attempt was in the famous “Stevie Got Loose” game vs UofL. Johnson’s TD put us up 5, and the PAT made it 6. Even the announcers said we had to go for 2 and could not understand why we did not. But, alls well that ends well, so we were OK. Still, it was a glaring coaching error made in the excitement of the moment.

            Comment

            Someone explain the 2-point conversion decision

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