Ranking the Next Five Opps

[blueheretic]

1 = most difficult/less likely win to 5 = least difficult/most likely win

---

1. Vanderbilt (Nov 22, @ Vanderbilt)

• Vanderbilt is having a legit breakthrough year: 7–1 overall, 3–1 SEC, and sitting in/around the AP Top 10 — their best start in basically a lifetime.
• They’ve beaten multiple ranked teams and are doing it with competent QB play and real defense.
• It’s on the road for Kentucky, and Kentucky is 0–5 in SEC play right now.
  Why 1: This is currently the toughest remaining ask.
• No way Kentucky wins this one unless Pavia gets kidnapped by Martians and Neptunians.
• A win here may, oddly enough, buy Stoops another year but only if it leads to a Bowl Game.

2. Louisville (Nov 29, @ Louisville)

• Louisville is 6–1, ranked in the teens (AP around 16–19 range), and just beat top teams like Miami and then handled Boston College.
• Brohm’s offense is scoring in the mid-30s per game and can stress you vertically.
• It’s a true road rivalry game to close the season, and they’re playing like an ACC contender, not just “a rival.”
  Why 2: Not SEC, but still a top-20 team and at their home.
• I think this is a loss. Another Mars Attacks scenario.

3. Auburn (Nov 1, @ Auburn)

• Auburn is 4–4 overall, 1–4 in the SEC, so not elite — but they’re still an SEC roster in Jordan–Hare.
• They’ve hung around with ranked SEC teams and can ugly a game with defense.
  Why 3: They’re not having a monster year, but winning at Auburn is always a fistfight, and Kentucky hasn’t beaten anybody in the SEC yet (2–5 overall, 0–5 SEC).
• Toss up. A win buys Stoops nothing. A loss damages him further.

4. Florida (Nov 8, vs Florida in Lexington)

• Florida is 3–4 overall / 2–2 SEC, with a weird résumé: they upset Texas, but they also lost to South Florida and then fired Billy Napier. The program is in transition under an interim.
• Importantly, Florida hasn’t won on the road (0–3 away).
• This one’s at Kroger Field.
  Why 4: Talent is there, but instability + Lexington makes it more winnable than Auburn/Louisville/Vandy.
• At the beginning of the year, this was a loss in my book. Now, who knows.
• Winnable if Kentucky hasn't fallen apart but if it's a loss, Stoops' could save the world from a Martian attack and it won't matter.

5. Tennessee Tech (Nov 15, in Lexington)

• Tennessee Tech is actually having a great FCS year: 8–0, top-10 in the FCS polls.
• But they’re still an FCS roster (OVC–Big South) stepping up against an SEC roster.
  Why 5: Even with Kentucky struggling, an SEC team almost always handles an FCS visitor.
• A win here does little for us. A loss here destroys Stoops.

Partial Credit to ChatGPT

[Jaxcat]

Good insight. I disagree that Auburn is a toss up, though. They have a very strong defense and, depending on who plays at QB and how they play, their offense is at least as good as ours, if not better. That FR WR will see the ball early and often and we don't have any 2 guys that can guard him. They're at home, they desperately need a win (or at least Freeze does) while our team may begin to mail it in, if they haven't already (sure looked like White mailed in the TN game).

Florida is a mess but they do have more talent than we do and their defense is also legit. If they come motivated, I'd say we'll have our hands full. Lagway is good enough with his legs that he'll give White fits although he reminds me of Anthony Richardson passing the ball - here, there, everywhere. If he's 'on', though, they'll put up 25 points or more.

Yes, TN Tech is FCS. BUT, we've had a history of playing some close games vs FCS teams in the past. As you stated, they are a darn good FCS team, not a bottom feeder. Plus, if we're on a 6-game losing streak and the stands are 1/2 full of apathetic fans, the team may come out flat as a pancake and it might serve as the annual stinker game that we've usually had under Stoops. I believe we'll win that game but wouldn't be surprised if it's touch and go into the 4th quarter. Would not be the upset of the year if TT beats us, imo.

I'm expecting 3-9 this year. I don't see us upsetting anyone. I believe we're just as capable of beating Florida as turning around and getting beat by Tn Tech.

I've already mentally put VU and UofL in the Loss column. It's just a matter of by how much, imo.