Kentucky vs. Louisville

[Old School]

Louisville enters the game with a homefield advantage, a strong defense and backfield, a really good WR, and the best stats in the nation, by far, when it comes to interceptions on defense, but their starting QB injured and a true freshman in his place. It'll be critical in this game for Kentucky on defense to stop the run and keep the ball in between the 20s, and on offense to avoid interceptions. My guess is the line will be about 14 points if Notre Dame beats Louisville this weekend, more than that if Louisville wins, and less if Notre Dame beats them badly.

There are some facets that I think are critical to this matchup. I'll mention a few now, maybe some more later.

Louisville with the ball: running game, and in the red zone

Petrino is known for his passing offenses, but over 50% of Louisville plays have been running plays this year, and their pass completion rate is only 56% - slightly lower than UK's. UL only averages 239 passing yards per game. UL's offense this year has relied on the run being successful, and it probably will even more now that they are playing a true freshman at QB due to injury. UL averages 4.9 yards per play (UK: 4.8). Petrino loves to build a lead, then hammer at defenses with the running game, keeping the defense on the field and wearing them down. UK's troubles this year often result and get worse due to the defense being on the field too long. For Kentucky, defending well against the run is imperative. UK's defense has been terrible this year in opponent red zone scoring, giving up scores in an incredible 97% of red zone possessions, which is second to last in the whole country (behind only Indiana, by 0.67%, and a full 3.22% behind the third worst team in that category, Illinois). But Louisville's offense isn't good in that category (80.56% - #84 in the nation). UL will most definitely be looking to grind it out not just late in the game, but throughout the game to get into the red zone behind their RBs, with some attempted big play throws to Parker and maybe Christian. UK desperately needs to try to keep the game between the 20s on defense, not just because of its weak red zone performance, but also because of depth concerns and not wanting a winded defense trying to stop a persistent running attack late in the game. Surprisingly, Kentucky's defense is #4 in the nation in opponent points scored in the 4th quarter (3.1). That's not due to being in recent lopsided losses; #3 is LSU and #6 is Alabama. Louisville's is #8 (4.0). Odd similarity there.

Turnovers - interceptions in particular

Turnovers often are the difference in the game, and the difference when a favored team loses to an underdog, and when an underdog is beaten badly. One turnover can account for a 14 point swing in a game. Teams with good turnover ratios usually have better records, and vice versa. Louisville is one of the worst teams in the country in both fumbling away the ball this year and in recovering fumbles; UK is among the 20 best teams in the country in that latter category. But UL is #1 in the nation in interceptions (2.3 per game, an outstanding stat - #2 Ole Miss is at 2.0 and #3 TCU is at 1.8, a full 0.5 behind UL). And UL is #8 in the nation in takeaways per game (2.7; #1 is TCU at only 2.9). UL is #13 in the nation in interceptions thrown per game (only 1.38% of passes). UL is #1 in the nation in opponent interception thrown percentage (7.12% of all passes thrown by their opponents were intercepted; #2 Ole Miss is at only 6.19%, and #3 Tulane is at only 5.38%). Louisville is in the top 20 nationally in not throwing interceptions (UK is #66), but is #117 out of #128 in coughing up fumbles (UK is #101). UK holds onto its fumbles, ranking #18 in fumbles lost per game; UL does not and is #127 out of 128 in that category. Overall UK is #29 nationally in giveaways per game (1.3) and UL is #96. Louisville will need to avoid its most frequent problem of the year and hang onto the ball; if they do, they'll be turning in a better performance than usual. Towles needs to choose his throws well, and watch film and know the guys in the secondary and what they do. Louisville has lived by making interceptions this year, and it's been critical for them because of their subpar offense. They won by 10 against Wake Forest this year, thanks to 3 interceptions. They hung with Florida State for three quarters thanks to three interceptions. They came back from 10 down to beat Boston College thanks to 4 interceptions. They lost to Virginia because of two INTs that set up two of UVA's four scoring drives, and the game was close because they ended a UVA drive with an INT on their own 1 yard line. UL's game against Clemson was close thanks to 2 INTs; UL only managed 10 first downs in that game and was 1 of 19 on 3rd and 4th down conversions. UL has lived and died by INTs this year in important games; UK needs to limit throwing them, and make one or two. If Kentucky avoids throwing picks, that'll be taking away what has often been Louisville's biggest advantage on the field this year. Turnovers so often are the difference in a game, but turnovers - margin, and interceptions in particular - have been a staple of Louisville's success this year. It's essential that Kentucky limit them, not just because of the typical advantages involved with them, but because they're how Louisville manages to win games this year despite a sputtering offense.

For over three quarters UK fared well in each of those key areas and was in a position to win the game. Then UK lost its handle on each of those components in the last part of the 4th quarter and the game went with it.

For about 3.6, 3.7 quarters Kentucky was in it, but in those last few minutes, they dropped those keys to the game: keeping UL between the 20s (the long TD drive due to UK's hands to the face penalty that negated a sack, the long pass completion to the right on 3rd and long, the long completion to Parker on the left that took them into the red zone), the UL running game at the end (bulling it in for the late TD inside the red zone), and the Towles INT to Holliman that ended the final UK drive. Handling UL's running game better than expected, keeping UL out of the red zone and keeping the turnovers going UK's way kept it UK's game for most of three and a half quarters, but when those things turned at the end, so did the game.

Not a bad effort today; 5-6 14 point underdogs led late in the 4th quarter against a ranked team.

I will be interested to see what this squad does with all of those freshmen and sophomores coming back after a year of conditioning, weights and coaching, joined by a slew of redshirted freshmen, and a new OC under whom play calling might be more effective in games like this one.

Petrino spazzing out pre-game and then going for it with under a minute left to play and the lead speaks volumes about his character. Consciously or not he reinforced for everyone that he deserves the reputation he has for courting other schools while UL's coach and lying about it, ducking out on the Falcons in midseason, the debacle he put Arkansas through, etc. The schools he hopes will hire him away from UL do not overlook or ignore those things the way that Jurich does, except maybe Miami.