Looking Ahead: Ole Miss

[Matt Dillon]

Every week leading up to the kickoff of Kentucky's 2017 fall camp, CatsPause.com will take a look at each opponent on UK's schedule. Next up is the Ole Miss Rebels, who visit Lexington on Nov. 4.
Talking Point: If The Grove appears more shaded than usual, the NCAA-sized cloud looming overhead in Oxford might have something to do with it. Ole Miss is facing 21 allegations and a charge of institutional lack of control from the NCAA and has already self-imposed a postseason bowl ban for 2017, though the sanctions are expected to be more severe. That casts a pall over what were already not-so-sunny days for the Rebels, who are coming off a 5-7 season punctuated by a 55-20 loss to rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. Head coach Hugh Freeze has to be feeling the heat ahead of his sixth season, despite being the only coach in Ole Miss history to lead the team to bowl berths in each of his first four years on the job.

http://kentucky.247sports.com/Article/Kentucky-Football-An-early-look-at-the-Ole-Miss-Rebels-53473822

[BSNB Dave]

Ole Miss would normally be a tall mountain to climb for Kentucky but I think they could be ripe for the pickn this year... it will be 9 games deep into the season before we face them and we'll know a lot more about both teams by the time they roll into Lexington

[Old School]

Ole Miss is a very dangerous opponent in 2017 and a lot of people aren't giving them enough credit for their strengths. NCAA issues don't guarantee a bad season. Auburn went 11-0 in 1993 despite NCAA probation and scholarship reductions. UK was 7-5 in 2002 despite similar problems. The same has happened elsewhere. Ole Miss' players like and believe in their coach and they'll play hard for him. More bad news during the season might fire the team up instead of having the opposite effect. That happens, including at Kentucky in 1996 when a 1-6 Kentucky team ripped off 3 straight SEC wins after the long-overdue firing of Bill Curry was announced. This is a team that hit #3 in the AP poll in both 2014 and 2015 and hasn't come close to losing all of the talent that those teams had or attracted. Last year, they spent half of the year ranked in the top 25, and led Florida State 28-6 and led Alabama 24-3. They were also tied with LSU in the second half and led Auburn in the fourth quarter. You can't do that in those four games without a solid team. They blew those leads, but they hammered 3-0, #12 Georgia, 45-14 (they were up 45-0 before giving up two meaningless TDs in benchwarmer time) and they won at 7-2, #10 Texas A&M in front of 105,000 people with a true freshman QB playing in his first game ever due to the starter's injury. They hung 500+ yards of offense on Alabama, Georgia, Auburn and Mississippi State last year. They're a dangerous team and their 5-7 record last year is misleading.

Some things not mentioned in that article:

Ole Miss is really strong on both lines. On their DL, DE Marquis Haynes would probably start at any SEC school, and DT Benito Jones would probably start anywhere other than Alabama. Their OL is solid too, with three starters who were considered top 10 players nationally as recruits at their positions, and solid depth.

Ole Miss has a dangerous QB, Shea Patterson. He had his redshirt taken off 9 games into the season as a true freshman last year and in his very first game he beat Texas A&M. Ole Miss is going to an Air Raid offense this year that should play to his strengths. Their offense was potent last year (the guy Patterson replaced passed for 400+ yards against both Alabama and Auburn) and they have some very talented WRs.

Ole Miss generally hasn't had great backfields or accomplished running backs under Freeze and I don't think 2017 will be different. So, Ole Miss' strength on offense (the passing game) matches with Kentucky's strength on defense (DBs) while Kentucky's weakness (DL) shouldn't face a particularly strong ground attack.

Their linebackers weren't impressive last year. Their DBs weren't either, but should be improved this year. Their special teams are promising.

Some offensive stats from Ole Miss' and Kentucky's games against common opponents last year:

Alabama
Ole Miss gained 522 and gave up 492
Kentucky gained 161 and gave up 488

Georgia
Ole Miss gained 510 and gave up 396
Kentucky gained 308 and gave up 460

Mississippi State
Ole Miss gained 528 and gave up 566
Kentucky gained 554 and gave up 460

Vanderbilt
Ole Miss gained 363 and gave up 481
Kentucky gained 307 and gave up 282

Alabama 34, Kentucky 6
Alabama 48, Ole Miss 43

Georgia 27, Kentucky 24
Ole Miss 45, Georgia 14

Kentucky 20, Vanderbilt 13
Vanderbilt 38, Ole Miss 17

Kentucky 40, Mississippi State 38
Mississippi State 55, Ole Miss 20

Ole Miss played Vanderbilt and Mississippi State in their final two games of the season, putting up pretty good performances against some West teams before that. Ole Miss' first ten games are a better demonstration of what that team can do. The last two seem to be what a lot of UK fans hope or assume they were and will be in 2017.

Ole Miss' defensive coordinator is Wesley McGriff, who was an assistant coach at Kentucky under Guy Morriss (RB coach, 2001; DB coach, 2002).

Their special teams coach is Bradley Dale Peveto, who had the same position at UK in Stoops' first season and was at LSU for three years before going to Ole Miss.

This isn't a game that anyone should be circling as a W. If the program slides into discord and chaos by November, this will still be a dangerous team; I think it's at least as likely that Ole Miss will be motivated and bringing a winning record into the Kentucky game. No one should be surprised if Ole Miss ends up favored against Kentucky this year. They're a better team than last year's record indicates and NCAA issues are no guarantee of problems on the field.

[BSNB Dave]

Holly snikies Old School... talk about doing your offseason research... this is good stuff...

[Blue Heaven]

Holly snikies Old School... talk about doing your offseason research... this is good stuff...

That's Old School. He brings it like that every post.

[SBCatMan]

This coming season is looking tougher and tougher with each passing day.

[Lighthouse]

I believe we can compete, so schedules don't bother me now as much as they used to.

[SBCatMan]

According to one analyst, we will be facing more good quarterbacks than the Chicago Bears.

[Matt Dillon]

According to one analyst, we will be facing more good quarterbacks than the Chicago Bears.

I'm glad the secondary is one of the bright spots of the def. I just hope we can get some pressure up front.

[johnkyblue]

According to one analyst, we will be facing more good quarterbacks than the Chicago Bears.

That is absolutely ridiculous. Who is this analyst?

Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston (I'll give you the UL QB), Big Ben, the best QB ever - Aaron Rogers TWICE, Sam Bradford (backup is Bridgewater) TWICE, Joe Flacco, Cam Newton, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford TWICE, nevermind the Eagles - lol, Brian Hoyer, Andy Dalton, I don't feel sorry for the Browns... VS

Someone not yet named, Tim Boyle, Jake Bentley, maybe Luke Del Rio - maybe?, Brogan Roback, Drew Lock, Nick Fitzgerald, Quinten Dormady, Shae Patterson, Kyle Shurmur, Jacob Eason, Lamar Jackson.

Save the Eagles and the Brows, every single NFL QB is heads and shoulders above those UK plays against, except maybe one more, maybe Lamar Jackson is comparable to Jameis Winston, maybe.... an argument for Shae Patterson over Hoyer? No.... Sorry. Who the heck was that? Do they make a living doing this?

[SBCatMan]

Uh, my comment was a bit hyperbolic. The point is, we will be facing a string of very good college level QBs.